Experts have warned that the UK is already at the start of a ‘devastating’ new Covid-19 wave that could cripple the NHS this winter.
Early data revealed the new subvariants of Omicron ‘evolve around the immunity’ built up through vaccinations and Covid infections.
Experts claim the new immune evasive variants could cause ‘real problems’ for the ‘already on its knees’ NHS as the cold weather approaches.
The stark warning comes as Britain’s autumn Covid surge saw cases rise by 14 per cent, according to the latest figures covering data for the week ending September 17.
About 1.1 million people tested positive for the virus in the latest survey, marking the first sustained rise since mid-July, when the summer wave peaked and ministers faced calls to roll back pandemic-era restrictions.
Officials claim a drop in testing and inadequate surveillance of new immune-evading subvariants has created the ‘perfect storm’ for another Covid surge.
The graph shows the total number of Covid patients in England’s hospitals per day, broken down into those who were admitted because they were ill with Covid (blue line) and those who were given a bed for another condition – and happened to test positive ( pink line)
Covid experts say the immune-evading variants of the virus are already ‘starting to cause a small increase in infections.’
“It looks like we’re at the start of the next wave, and this time it’s affected older people a little earlier than the last wave,” Professor Tim Spector, co-founder of the Covid ZOE app, told The independent.
He explained that the symptoms also present themselves slightly differently than in previous variants, meaning that many infected individuals do not seek Covid tests.
‘Many people are still using government guidelines on symptoms that are wrong,’ Prof Spector argued.
‘At the moment, Covid starts in two thirds of people with a sore throat. Fever and loss of smell are really rare now – so many old people may not think they’ve got Covid. They would say it’s a cold and not get tested.’
“We’ve really taken our eye off the ball with Covid tests,” echoed virologist Professor Lawrence Young of the University of Warwick. ‘We can only detect variants or know what’s coming by doing sequencing from PCR tests, and it’s not happening anywhere near the extent it was a year ago.
‘People are going to get different infections over the winter but they don’t know what they are because free tests aren’t available – that’s going to be a problem.
“Another angle is the economic pressure. If people feel bad, they probably won’t take time off from work. You really have a perfect storm here of inadequate surveillance, people not reporting for vaccination and the economic situation.’
Covid hospitalization data shows that 7,024 infected patients occupied hospital beds at 8 on Wednesday – a 37 percent increase in one week and the highest number in more than two months. Patient numbers had been falling since mid-July from a peak of 14,000, which was triggered by the Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5. But this decline stalled in mid-September
Health experts have also found that the newer variants of Omicron – BA.2.75.2 derived from BA.2, and BQ1.1 derived from BA.5 – have been able to escape the immune system.
“The interesting thing about these variants is that although they are slightly different in how they arose, they have come up with the same changes to get around the body’s immune system,” Professor Young told the paper.
“What we’re finding is that the virus is evolving around the immunity that’s been built up through vaccines and countless infections people have had.”
Professor Tim Spector (pictured), co-founder of the Covid ZOE app, claimed the new immune evasive variants could cause ‘real problems’ for the ‘already on its knees’ NHS as winter approaches
He added: ‘The biggest concern we see is that in early data these variants are starting to cause a small increase in infections.
“In a way, this was expected, but it shows that we’re not out of the woods yet with this virus, unfortunately.”
Both professors have called on the government to make ‘stronger and proactive messages’ ahead of the looming winter.
Prof Young, repeated calls by public health experts, urged people to get their booster jabs, noting how the new bivalent vaccine boosters tackle multiple variants – which is ‘key to preventing a devastating wave.’
He acknowledged that there are still questions about how effective immunization would be in preventing vulnerable people from getting sick.
The virologist also called for a return to masking in ‘crowded indoor spaces’ and areas that are ‘poorly ventilated’.
Professor Denis Kinane, an immunologist who founded the Covid testing company Cignpost Diagnostic, also raised concerns about the lack of free tests in the UK.
“While cases are currently on the rise, we don’t yet know the full extent of what’s to come in the fall and winter,” he said.
“However, with mass participation events such as the football World Cup taking place in November, international travel growing rapidly, different vaccination levels around the world and with most countries having relaxed entry requirements, an increase in cases and the emergence of newer variants cannot be ruled out. ‘
The experts’ concerns come as NHS statistics released on Friday showed a 48 per cent weekly rise in the number of infected patients in England needing treatment.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS), which tracks the size of the country’s outbreak, estimates that cases have risen 12 percent in three days, suggesting the pressure on hospitals is nowhere near peaking.
Around 860,000 people in England are believed to be carrying Covid.
The report marks the first sustained rise since mid-July, when the summer wave peaked and ministers faced calls to roll back pandemic restrictions.
Hospitals have been overwhelmed all summer. Care backlogs have piled up to record levels, patients have been killed by ambulance delays and thousands forced to queue for more than 12 hours in flooded emergency units.
The never-ending crisis, driven mainly by staff shortages, has already forced one NHS trust in Nottinghamshire to start canceling routine operations. Rationing care is the only way to ensure critically ill patients receive emergency treatment, bosses said.
Leaders fear the situation will only worsen as routine winter pressures begin to take hold, with Covid and flu expected to combine to create a ‘twindemic’.
Dr. Mary Ramsay, director of public health programs at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), told the Independent that the data is ‘clear now that we are seeing an increase’ in the level of Covid.’
“Cases are starting to increase and hospitalizations are increasing in the oldest age groups,” she said. ‘In the coming weeks we expect a dual threat of low immunity and widely circulating influenza and Covid-19, creating an unpredictable winter and further pressure on the healthcare system.’
However, Sarah Crofts, the ONS deputy director of the Covid-19 infection investigation, hit back, claiming that the ‘too early to identify if this is the start of a new wave’.
The infection data also shows that the number of cases has increased in all parts of the country, although the ONS noted that the trend in the East Midlands and South West was unclear. The West Midlands, North East and Yorkshire and the Humber recorded the highest infection rates
The prevalence of the virus increased among all ages, with rates being highest among the over-50s and 16 to 49-year-olds
Concerns about the potential new wave also come just weeks away after the British Medical Journal (BMJ) was accused of giving hard-line Covid researchers too much clout and risking being one-sided with their ‘Covid approach’.
BMJ in early September launched a multi-part series delving into the government’s handling of the pandemic. Editors promised that articles would analyze both successes and failures.
Yet almost all the pieces published so far have been heavily leaned on by members of a left-wing group of pundits called Independent SAGE, who have repeatedly criticized No10 for lifting restrictions too soon.
The self-appointed panel famously lobbied for a Christmas lockdown last year and called for mask mandates to be brought back during April’s Omicron resurgence – despite both waves fizzing out naturally without crippling the NHS.
Influential members of Independent SAGE, which includes an active Communist Party member nicknamed ‘Stalin’s nanny’, have also previously compared children who get Covid to child abuse.
The BMJ, a 180-year-old publication, defended its decision to feature the group so strongly, despite calls from top experts to widen its net and end its reliance on ‘like-minded’ voices.
Scientific arguments on how best to deal with Covid have changed drastically since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, with vaccines dampening the threat of the virus by turning it into something similar to influenza – a seasonal virus that the country live with every year.
Professor Karol Sikora, a world-renowned oncologist and one of the first to publicly warn of the collateral effects of shutdowns, said there was a risk that the BMJ presents too much from one side of the debate.
“Denying lockdown damage is futile and whether or not you agreed with any restrictions, the huge damage is undeniable,” he told MailOnline.
“We need a comprehensive discussion about what went right and what went wrong.
‘Studies conducted by participants exclusively from one side of the debate will achieve very little’.