Oregon has been blue for nearly 40 years. Its largest city is caricatured on TV as a byword for eccentric hipsters. And the state is so far from a Republican target that Donald Trump doesn’t even bother with primary endorsements.
But having already become the face of the GOP in Oregon, Christine Drazan has a narrow lead over her rivals for governor, and analysts have moved the state from the Democratic column to “throw up” in November’s midterms.
It has required an unusual set of circumstances: A former Democrat turned independent siphoned the support of the party’s nominee; concerns about vandalism and homelessness in Portland; and a Republican candidate who has navigated Trump’s allegations of voter fraud and comes with a reputation as a grenade-throwing obstructionist for his time in the state legislature.
“She’s exceptionally talented and incredibly ruthless,” is how Greg Leo, former chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, described her to Williamette week.
“She got up quickly and broke some china in the process.”
Allies say the 50-year-old mother of three has been consistently underestimated even as she fought her way to become leader of the Oregon House Republicans.
Republican candidate Christine Drazan has a narrow lead in the race to become Oregon’s next governor. So who is she and can she turn the state red for the first time in nearly 40 years?
Rolling averages of polls suggest Drazan has a narrow lead over Democratic Party candidate Tina Kotek, according to this survey published this week by Emerson College Polling
She was not born into politics. She grew up poor. Her father worked in timber mills and her mother had multiple sclerosis.
“There wasn’t really a time when money wasn’t an issue while I was living at home,” she has said. ‘We moved and moved and moved.’
She graduated with a degree in communications from George Fox University – a Christian university in the state – in 1993.
She then became a staffer in the state legislature and became chief of staff for a Republican House speaker.
She quit in 2003 to become a lobbyist and first sought election in 2018 and easily won a seat.
Her rapid rise to party leadership came amid disagreements over whether Republicans should stage walkouts to deny Democrats the quorum they needed to pass their agenda — and climate change legislation in particular.
Republican nominee Drazan, left, and Democratic nominee Tina Kotek, center, listen to unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson speak during the gubernatorial debate hosted by the Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association at the Mount Hood Oregon Resort in July
Drazan (center) is pictured here when she was House Republican Leader with Kotek (left) when she was Speaker of the House. House Majority Leader Barbara Smith Warner is at right
Much of the party leadership was reluctant, seeing it as the nuclear option: to be used only in the most dire circumstances.
Drazan saw it differently. In 2001, Drazan had watched as Democrats killed a new congressional district map by walking out of the House, denying Republicans the quorum they needed to pass the plan.
“There were all these issues in the caucus, and their leadership was basically thrown out,” said Jim Moore, associate professor at the Tom McCall Center for Civic Engagement, at Pacific University.
‘And Christine Drazen, who was just in her first term was installed … was elected by her fellow Republicans.’
In a state where Democrats held virtually every elected office, that made the House Republican caucus leader the Republican Party of Oregon, he added.
After battling through a 19-way primary, she’s now running with Democratic candidate Tina Kotek — aided by a spoiler in the form of independent Betsy Johnson, who spent two decades as a Democratic state legislator and votes at nearly 20 years old. percentage.
Drazan has put economic issues — the high cost of living — at the center of an agenda that also paints Kotek as close to the outgoing governor, who is deeply unpopular over pandemic shutdowns and the rise in homelessness.
Like many democratically-led cities in the United States, Portland is experiencing a homeless crisis
But her rapid rise and short stint as a legislator means voters don’t have a clear idea of what kind of governor she would make, according to Moore.
“There is evidence that says she would be a center-right Republican,” he said.
‘She doesn’t embrace Trump. She does not embrace any of the ideas of electoral fraud. Actually, she defends our election system, all that kind of stuff, but on issues that are very important to people in Oregon, like climate change and abortion, she’s very, very conservative.
A number of polls in recent weeks have suggested that Drazan may have a narrow lead with voters.
This week’s Emerson poll gives Drazan a one-point lead and suggests her positions on the economy — as well as giving Trump a wide berth — are key.
“Among those who say the economy is their biggest issue, 52 percent plan to vote for Drazan and 21 percent for Johnson,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
‘A majority of those who say “threats to democracy” are their top issue when they vote recess for Kotek with 59% support.’