<!-- wp:html --><p>Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty</p>
<p>If the pollsters and handicappers end up being spectacularly wrong on <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-spends-fck-you-money-in-blue-seats-as-polls-tilt-their-way-for-midterm-elections">Election Night</a>, there’s one group that won’t be too surprised: the pollsters and handicappers themselves.</p>
<p>The 2022 midterms could go exactly as modeled—a <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/?cid=rrpromo">20-some-odd-seat pickup</a> for Republicans in the House and <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate">maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate</a>—but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways. In either direction.</p>
<p>No one really knows because, like every election, pollsters are extrapolating their <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/dear-pollsters-you-suck-and-were-finished-with-you">best guess</a> based on a set of <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/joe-biden-and-the-democrats-should-be-absolutely-terrified-by-these-new-poll-numbers">assumptions</a>. But <em>unlike </em>previous elections, the assumptions are getting bigger.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/pollsters-have-no-fcking-idea-whats-going-to-happen-during-2022-midterm-elections?source=articles&via=rss">Read more at The Daily Beast.</a></p><!-- /wp:html -->
Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty
If the pollsters and handicappers end up being spectacularly wrong on Election Night, there’s one group that won’t be too surprised: the pollsters and handicappers themselves.
The 2022 midterms could go exactly as modeled—a 20-some-odd-seat pickup for Republicans in the House and maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate—but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways. In either direction.
No one really knows because, like every election, pollsters are extrapolating their best guess based on a set of assumptions. But unlike previous elections, the assumptions are getting bigger.
