US Senate; Getty; Marianne Ayala/Insider
Democratic US Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is running against Republican Adam Laxalt in Nevada.
Republicans are optimistic about the contest, but for now, it is viewed as too close to call.
If Democrats hold onto the seat, the GOP will face a steeper climb to retaking the majority.
Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is locked in one of the nation’s closest-watched Senate races in Nevada against Republican Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general.
Polls closed in the state at 7 p.m. local time, or 10 p.m. EST.
Nevada Senate candidates
Cortez Masto is no stranger to close contests. She led Senate Democrats’ campaign arm as the party eeked out a tie-breaking majority following Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff’s narrow wins in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs. A protégé of the late-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Cortez Masto made history as the first Latina elected to the US Senate when she succeeded Reid in 2017.
Laxalt hails from Nevada political royalty. His grandfather, Paul Laxalt, was both a governor and a US senator. It was also revealed in 2013 that he is the son of Pete Domenici, a US senator from New Mexico. Cortez Masto’s campaign has painted Laxalt as out of touch because of his background, most notably in an ad that echoed HBO’s “Succession.”
Laxalt has held statewide office before as state attorney general, but that wasn’t enough to prevent Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak from defeating Laxalt in 2018 to become the state’s first Democratic governor in over two decades. Laxalt, as a top Trump campaign official, led unsuccessful post-election challenges in the state and has tried to spark doubts about the current race.
A victory here for the GOP could very well decide the majority, ending the longest-ever evenly split Senate. If Cortez Masto manages to hold on, the GOP’s path to 51 seats becomes even more perilous and Democrats’ odds of retaining power in the Senate improve.
Voting history in Nevada
Democrats have controlled at least one of the state’s two Senate seats since Reid’s election in 1986. Sen. Jacky Rosen’s ouster of Republican incumbent Dean Heller in 2018 gave the party total control for the first time since 2000.
Nevada has been viewed as a swing state in presidential elections, but experts have worried that the state’s changing demographics would put it further out of reach for the GOP. Former President Donald Trump’s inroads with Latino voters more broadly has squelched some of those concerns.
The money race
According to OpenSecrets, Cortez Masto has raised $44 million, spent $39.1 million, and has roughly $5.1 million on hand, as of September 30. Laxalt has raised $13.3 million, spent $9.3 million, and has roughly $4 million on hand, as of September 30.
Spending by super PACs, party committees, and other organizations advocating for or against these candidates has been massive, per OpenSecrets — more than $86 million combined, through mid-October. The vast majority of the spending has come in the form of attack ads.
What experts say
The race between Cortez Masto and Laxalt is unanimously rated as a “toss-up” by Inside Elections, The Cook Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.