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Mortgage rates plunged following last week’s Consumer Price Index report, and they remain low today. If inflation continues to show signs of easing, mortgage rates could start trending down sooner than expected.
In the short term, rates could trend back up following this temporary drop, but we likely won’t see them go much higher.
Most forecasts currently expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for the remainder of 2022 and into the new year, with some moderate decreases coming later in 2023. But if the Federal Reserve is successful in cooling price growth and is able to ease up on the pace of its hikes to the federal funds rate, we may start to see some steady drops in rates earlier in the year.
Until rates start coming down, there are strategies homebuyers can use to save money on interest now. Shop around with multiple lenders to see who can offer the best rates or other affordable mortgage features.
“Mortgage companies are starting to build in savings incentives for consumers to make it more attractive to lock in while rates remain high,” says Dan Richards, executive vice president of mortgage at Flyhomes. “For example, here at Flyhomes we recently rolled out a new deal for our mortgage customers where we will cover the cost to refinance when rates come down so that the rate they get now isn’t the rate they have to pay for the next 30 years.”
Adjustable-rate mortgages may also be a worthwhile option right now, since adjustable rates are typically lower than fixed rates. Just be sure to have a plan for what you’ll do if your rate increases down the road.
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Are HELOCs a good idea right now?
Many homeowners gained a lot of equity over that past couple of years as home prices increased at an unprecedented rate. But because rates are so high now, tapping into that equity can be expensive.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may still be a good option.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum.
Depending on your finances and the type of HELOC you get, you may be able to get a better rate with a HELOC than you would with a home equity loan or a cash-out refinance. Just keep in mind that HELOC rates are variable, so if rates start to trend up further, yours will likely increase, as well.
Mortgage rate projection for 2023
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and have increased over three percentage points so far in 2022. They’ll likely remain near their current levels for the remainder of 2022.
But many forecasts expect rates to begin to fall next year. In their latest forecast, Fannie Mae researchers predicted that rates are currently peaking, and that 30-year fixed rates will trend down to 6.2% by the end of 2023.
The Mortgage Bankers Association also noted that a recession in the first half of 2023 could cause rates to fall even faster. It currently estimates that there’s a 50% likelihood that a mild recession will materialize in the next year.
Whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 7.7%. This is only a slight slowdown compared to the previous month’s numbers, which means the Fed will likely need to continue aggressively raising the federal funds rates to get prices to meaningfully come down.
As inflation slows, mortgage rates will likely start to fall as well. If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineers a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than what current forecasts expect. But rates probably won’t drop to the historic lows borrowers enjoyed throughout the past couple of years.
When will house prices come down?
Home prices are starting to decline, but we likely won’t see huge drops, even if there’s a recession.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that prices are still up year-over-year, though they fell on a monthly basis in July and August. Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to decline 1.5% in 2023, while the MBA expects a 2.8% increase in 2023 and a 2.1% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates may start to drop next year, which would remove some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely keep prices from dropping too far.
What happens to house prices in a recession?
House prices usually drop during a recession, but not always. When it does happen, it’s generally because fewer people can afford to purchase homes, and the low demand forces sellers to lower their prices.
How much mortgage can I afford?
A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much you can afford to borrow. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.
Typically, experts recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn’t exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
The lower your rate, the more you’ll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.