“We hear they want to beat us on the battlefield,” Putin added. “Let them try.”
US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss strategic deliberations, are urging Ukrainians to consolidate their forces at the front. But Ukraine’s leaders want to go further and muster enough personnel to launch a counter-offensive to retake territory, a goal US officials theoretically support, even if they doubt the Ukrainians’ ability to oust the Russians. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky last week told Group of 7 leaders that he wanted the war to be over before the end of the year† But there are serious doubts in Washington whether that is militarily possible.
Understanding the war between Russia and Ukraine better
The Biden administration does not want to be seen pressuring Mr Zelensky to negotiate a deal with the Kremlin at the risk of rewarding armed aggression, but officials and analysts said it would be difficult to maintain the same level of material support. as war fatigue mounts on both sides of the Atlantic. By some estimates, the military aid approved by Congress will last until the second quarter of next year, but the question is how long current stockpiles of weapons and ammunition can last without diminishing the United States’ military preparedness.
US officials have encouraged other countries to deliver leftover stockpiles of Soviet-made weapons that Ukrainians are more familiar with — an item on Mr Biden’s agenda for a trip to the Middle East next week, when he’s scheduled to meet leaders of Arab states who were once customers of Moscow.
“There’s a lot of leeway, but there’s clearly a sense that the next six months will be really critical,” said Ivo H. Daalder, the chairman of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US ambassador to NATO. “Over the next six months, we’ll find that one or both sides are too exhausted, and they’re going to find a way out.”
July 8, 2022, 6:18 PM ET
The Biden administration is also focused on conquering the swing states, as some call them: Brazil, China, India and other countries that did not participate in the United States and Europe’s campaign to isolate Moscow. A diplomatic effort would try to show them that Ukraine and the United States are open to a negotiated settlement as long as there are no territorial concessions, suggesting Russia is refusing to end the war.
As uncertain as the coming months may be, the government says it has met or will achieve some of the strategic goals it set in the spring. The first was to create a “vibrant, independent, democratic Ukraine” that could survive in the long run. Officials are confident the country will survive, but they also believe that unless Ukraine develops a way to export grain and other agricultural products, its economic future could be in jeopardy.