Happy Friday, team. I’m Phil Rosen, writing to you from New York City. I have a favor to ask: Insider is seeking nominations for the top equity analysts under the age of 35.
My colleagues and I need your help finding the brightest up-and-comers in sell-side research. If you know someone who should be considered, you can submit suggestions here.
(Here’s last year’s excellent list of rising stars.)
Now — let’s check in with Elon Musk.
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1. On Thursday, shares of Tesla slid roughly 7% after Elon Musk’s “master plan” fell short of expectations at the company’s highly anticipated investor day, which unfolded over the course of four hours on Wednesday.
Onlookers were hoping for more insight into new types of vehicles, including a rumored sub-$30,000 model and robotaxis, but Musk was largely mum on the matter.
In his “Master Plan 3” presentation, Musk, alongside several engineers, teased at two new models, but details were otherwise scant (though he did make several colorful comments).
The presentation did, however, lay out broad plans aimed at making Tesla the largest car company in the world.
By 2030, Tesla is looking to hit 20 million car sales per year.
The announcements were tepid enough that strategists at Vanda Research wrote in a note to clients that this month could see a sell-off for Tesla stock.
Over the last two months, retail investors have piled into shares of the EV-maker, but the weaker investor day could catalyze a reversal, according to Vanda.
“If we assume that much of the retail buying was driven by momentum rather than a strong conviction, a stagnation in performance caused by the lack of new ‘rumors’ to buy, could result in a significant reversal in sentiment, investment flows, and ultimately stock price,” Vanda said.
That said, Zacks Investment Research forecasts 30% upside for Tesla, and that climb could happen in 2023.
The firm gives Musk’s company a $260 price target over the next six to 12 months, which John Blank, chief equity strategist for Zacks, says is “doable.”
“The thing I think we should hear about the Cybertruck is it’s going to put a new factory template in place that we have not seen yet, and that’s what’s taking so long,” Blank said in a CNBC interview.
While Tesla has long been touted as innovative and futuristic over the last decade, Bespoke Investment Group concluded that the company is now actually a normal, boring car maker.
Here’s how they put it:
“With investors and analyst coverage focused on more concrete metrics and timelines, expectations for TSLA are being pushed to behave more like a traditional [original equipment manufacturer] and less like a disruptor.”
Are you more bullish or bearish on Tesla this year? Why or why not? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
2. US stock futures edge higher early Friday, as investors see glimmers of hope for more-moderate rate hikes in Fed official Bostic’s comments. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury is clinging on at just above 4%. Here are the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck: Lufthansa, Pearson, and more, all reporting.
4. Meet a 30-year-old contrarian stock trader. He said he’s made most of his profits by going against the crowd, since most people end up losing money in trading. These are three harsh truths he lives by that help him stay profitable regardless of market conditions.
5. The stock market is getting the jitters with a key bearish signal flashing red again. The 10-year Treasury bond yield has rebounded to highs last seen in November, marking a shift in investors’ expectations for interest rates. Here’s why the bulls are getting spooked right now.
6. The Treasury just gave the strongest indication yet that the US will get a digital dollar. But industry experts told Insider that the proliferation of a central bank digital currency still has risks — and that we have to be careful not to get caught up in a race with China.
7. Despite an aggressive Fed, equities have so far proved remarkably resilient this year. JPMorgan analysts said trillions of dollars in excess cash and a strong credit market have helped contain potential negative fallout so far. The Wall Street giant broke down why markets have yet to be crushed by aggressive policy.
8. These two college friends created energy gum and mints that got the attention of Shark Tank investors. They ended up turning down offers from Kevin O’Leary and Robert Herjavec — but they have since built an eight-figure business while working separate day jobs.
9. The father-son team behind a top-1% mutual fund shared their strategy with Insider. They are focusing on small companies with high upside that look built for a high-inflation environment. Here are the five stocks they’re most bullish on.
Markets Insider
10. Salesforce stock has 26% upside, according to Bank of America. The stock Thursday jumped 11% on earnings and BofA raised its price target for Marc Benioff’s tech firm from $200 to $235: “Margin outlook reflects major step toward disciplined growth.”
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Nathan Rennolds (@ncrennolds) in London.