Nintendo/Universal Pictures
There was no doubt in my mind that The Super Mario Bros. Movie would be a smash hit. Yet the shock and awe around its massive opening weekend box office haul suggests that some prognosticators saw the Nintendo movie as less of a surefire bet—one whose box office success could be tempered by weak reviews, social media skepticism, or both.
Early predictions expected the movie to make a lot of money, but not quite numerous-box-office-record-breaking money. Box Office Pro, for instance, initially pegged Mario for anywhere from a $75 million to $105 million three-day weekend bow; that fell in line with Deadline’s early “conservative estimate” of $85-90 million. Box Office Pro’s revised projections later upped that total to $112 million over that first weekend, and the million-plus subscriber base of r/boxoffice offered many similar guesses in its various prediction threads.
But all those numbers paled in comparison to the actual tally after Mario’s first five days in theaters: $146 million between Friday and Sunday, and $204 million since its Wednesday opening. That’s a lotta coins for the little plumber to convert into extra lives.