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A federal Newspoll, conducted April 19-22 from a sample of 1,514, gave Labor a 56-44 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (fixed), 33% Coalition (fixed), 11% Greens (one up), 7% One Nation (one down), and 11% for all others (fixed).
Despite Labor’s gains on vote intentions, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval fell five points to +16, with 53% satisfied (three down) and 37% dissatisfied (two up). This is from Albanians worst net approval in Newspoll since I became PM.
Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s net approval also fell six points to a new low of -19. Albanese led Dutton 54-28 as better PM, narrowing from 58-26 earlier. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.
The Resolve poll below gave Labor a much bigger lead, but Resolve has skewed towards Labor since the 2022 federal election, and last week’s Morgan and Essential polls also implied little change in Labour’s lead.
Two polls below show support for the Indigenous Voice in Parliament has fallen since December, but last week’s Essential and Resolve polls had the Voice’s support slightly higher than March. The Morgan poll was particularly bad for the Voice at 54-46 “yes”, excluding undecided.
Read more: Vote support increases in Essential and Resolve polls
Resolve poll gives Labor huge lead
a Solve the poll for Nine newspapers, conducted 12-16 April from a sample of 1,609, Labor gave 42% of the primary vote (three more since March), the Coalition 28% (two), the Greens 12% (one), One Nation 6 % (one up), the UAP 1% (fixed), independents 9% (fixed), and others 2% (fixed).
Resolve does not provide a two-party estimate until the election, but applying the 2022 election preferences to these primary votes leaves Labor ahead at 61-39, a two-point gain for Labor since March. Resolve is the most pro-Labor pollster since the last federal election.
Albanian extended his lead about Dutton as desired PM from March 51-22 to 55-21. By 56 to 30, voters thought the Albanians were doing well; his net approval of +27 was three points higher since March. Dutton’s net approval crashed 17 points to a new low of -28 as he had a poor job rating of 54-26.
Labor extended its economic management lead over the Liberals from 33-32 in March from 36-30 to 36-30. Keeping the cost of living down saw Labour’s lead increase to 29-22 from 31-21.
Support for vote drops in Morgan and Freshwater polls
a Morgan SMS survey, conducted April 14-18 from a sample of 1,181, 46% voted ‘yes’ (down seven since December), 39% voted ‘no’ (up eight), and undecided 15% (down two). When ruled out undecided, “yes” leads 54-46. This is the narrowest lead for “yes” in any Voice poll.
Other polls, such as Essential, which gave ‘yes’ a 60-40 lead last week, received strong support from the coalition; Essential had 41% of it coalition voters support “yes”. In Morgan, only 6% of coalition voters supported The Voice, with 74% against.
a Freshwater bearing for Sky News, conducted April 9-12 from a sample of 1,002, had “yes” against the vote at 42% (eighth drop since December), “no” at 34% (eighth rise) and 24% undecided (steady) . In a two-answer choice, “yes” led by 56-44.
NSW upper house final result: 21-21 tie between left and right
The New South Wales upper house has 42 members, with 21 elected every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. All 21 are elected by statewide proportional representation with optional affiliations. An election quota is 1/22 of the vote or 4.5%.
In last Wednesday’s distribution of preferences, that of the coalition seventh candidate defeated Animal Justice by over 10,000 votes or 0.05 quota to win the 21st and final seat. The margin narrowed only slightly from the 0.07 quota difference on primary votes.
This means Labor won eight of the 21 seats up for election on March 25 (up one), the Coalition seven (down two), the Greens two (stable), One Nation one (up one), Legalize Cannabis one (up one), the Liberal Democrats one (one up) and the Shooters one (steady). Animal Justice and the Christian Democrats lost their two seats.
The seats won are compared to the seats won in 2015, the last time these 21 seats were up for election. Defectors are ignored.
The upper house at large will have 15 Labor from the 42, 15 Coalition, four Greens, three One Nation, two Shooters and one each for the Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice and Legalize Cannabis.
Parties on the left (Labour, the Greens, Legalize Cannabis and Animal Justice) won the 21 seats in this election 11-10, but the right took an 11-10 victory in 2019. So the overall upper house is tied 21-21 between the left and right. The seats elected in 2019 are up for election in 2027.
The president of the NSW upper house does not vote except to cut ties. If Labor can convince a right-winger to take on the presidency, the left would have a 21-20 floor majority. Otherwise, Labor needs at least one vote from the right to pass legislation.
LNP takes the lead in a poll in the state of Queensland
The next Queensland state election is in October 2024. A YouGov Poll for The Courier Mail, conducted from March 30 to April 5 from a sample of 1,015, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for the LNP since December. The primary votes were 39% LNP (one up), 33% Labor (one down), 13% Greens (solid), 10% One Nation (one down), and 5% for all others (one up).
Prime Minister Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead over LNP leader David Crisafulli as prime minister of choice fell from 39-28 to 31-29 from 39-28 in December. The LNP led Labor to the best party to control the cost of living, health and juvenile delinquency, while Labor went on alone to make it to the Olympics. Poll numbers are from The Poll Bludger.
a resolve Queensland poll for The Brisbane Times conducted between mid-January and mid-April from a sample of 945 gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (down two times since September to December), the LNP 33% (down two times), the Greens 12 % (one up), One Nation 7% (one up), Independents 10% (three up), and Others 2% (two down).
Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated this poll would be 53-47 for Labor, unchanged from September to December. Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowed from 42-30 to 39-31. Palaszczuk’s net ratings turned negative after registering +8 last time.
Fieldwork for the Resolve survey began in January, and Resolve’s federal and state polls have generally shown a pro-Labor skew compared to other polls. So the YouGov poll will probably now be closer to voting intentions.