How social protection systems facilitate demographic change in Sub-Saharan Africa

More than 1.1 billion people currently live in Sub-Saharan Africa, and this number is expected to double by 2050. Yet many governments in the region struggle to provide enough schools, hospitals, food and clean water for their populations. Many countries are caught in a vicious circle of population growth and poverty. Social protection systems offer hope: they can lift the most vulnerable out of poverty, accelerate progress in education, health and nutrition, indirectly influencing the average number of children per woman.

That is why many governments in sub-Saharan African countries have accelerated the development of basic social protection systems over the past two decades. Currently, only 13.7 percent of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa benefits from at least one social protection measure. Most people in the region remain excluded from, for example, pension and health insurance because they work in the informal sector and pay no taxes. Nevertheless, there are indications that basic social protection measures such as money transfers lead to girls attending school longer and becoming pregnant later. Free school meals ensure that children attend school more often and learn better. And people who receive a pension are more likely to have smaller families because they are less dependent on their children for old age.

“These factors are all contributing to a decline in fertility rates and ongoing demographic change,” said Catherine Hinz, executive director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. “Countries can capitalize on these opportunities by adapting their social security systems to their current stage of demographic transition.” The Berlin Institute analyzed how social protection measures affect population development in selected sub-Saharan countries and presents its findings in the new study “Social Protection Over the Life Course”.

Basic social protection measures as a first step

In Tanzania, Zambia and Malawi, where populations continue to grow and fertility rates are falling only slowly, social protection usually means basic security for the poorest households. In Tanzania, for example, 1.1 million households receive cash transfers – about one in ten Tanzanian households. Although more than half of the households that receive remittances still live below the poverty line, the measure is having a positive effect. It helps to ensure that the children of parents who receive a transfer are healthier and attend school more often and for longer. “Better education increases the chances for young women to make self-determined decisions about the kind of lives they want to lead,” said Lorena Fuehr, co-author of the study. “As a rule, they then have children later and fewer children in total.”

Although social protection measures in many low-income countries have so far only reached a small part of the population, they improve living conditions and access to education in many places. In Malawi, informal savings groups stabilize household incomes and reduce the risk of people falling into poverty. In Zanzibar, a universal basic pension ensures that the elderly are no longer dependent on having large numbers of children and grandchildren to support them. “To achieve socio-demographic impact, governments need to improve the quality of education and better coordinate and integrate the various basic social protection measures,” said study co-author Lilian Beck.

More advanced social protection measures for a more advanced demographic transition

As countries enter a more advanced stage of demographic transition, they experience a changing age structure in the population and changing needs for social protection measures accordingly. Kenya, Ghana and Rwanda have already further developed their social security systems, enabling the first projections of their impact on fertility rates. For example, with the introduction of community-based health insurance, Rwanda has been able to insure more than 95 percent of the population within a decade. In the same period, maternal and infant mortality decreased by 30 percent. Where children have a higher chance of survival due to improved health care, parents choose smaller families one to two generations later. Ghana, in turn, has linked remittances for the most vulnerable to free health care. “Instead of spending their money transfer on doctor visits and medicines, parents can invest it in food and the education of their children,” says Führ. “This amplifies the impact money transfers can have on fertility rates.”

Compared to the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates have declined most in southern Africa. There, women now have an average of only 2.5 children. At the same time, the number of people over 60 is growing. Countries such as Botswana, Namibia and South Africa are already investing heavily in expanding their pension systems. In South Africa, virtually everyone over the age of 60 is covered by a basic public pension or a work-based pension scheme. In Namibia too, everyone over the age of 60 receives a basic pension, regardless of income. According to an analysis, Namibian women aged 30 to 45 have chosen to have fewer children since the introduction of the basic pension system.

Impact on fertility rates

Data on the potential impact of social protection systems on fertility rates remains limited. “Nevertheless, this analysis demonstrates the potential of social security systems to accelerate demographic change,” Hinz says. Therefore, social security, pension and health insurance should receive more attention in population policy. Measures that have significant potential to influence population dynamics, such as remittances for families whose children are entering secondary school, need to be further expanded. “African governments should focus on social protection measures for the growing generation of young people entering the labor market,” Hinz said. “Most young people work in the informal sector without any form of social protection. Whether they can protect themselves from the effects of illness or unemployment, or be confident in old age, will affect not only their chances in life, but also their family planning .”

Provided by Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung