Jeremy Siegel
REUTERS/Steve Marcus
Stocks are headed for a new record, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Friday.
“Lower inflation and stronger economy and good guidance and good profits, what’s to stop this market now?”
The S&P 500 is just 4% away from its all-time-high of 4,796, which it notched in January 2022.
Stocks are headed for new all-time-highs as the US economy and corporate earnings remain strong, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.
“This is such a strong market,” the top economist said in an interview with CNBC on Friday. “Lower inflation and stronger economy and good guidance and good profits, what’s to stop this market now?”
Stocks could be on the path to a new record, Siegel added, with the S&P 500 just 4% away from its all-time-high of 4,796, which it notched in January 2022.
Siegel has turned more optimistic on stocks in recent months, despite previously warning of a recession that could upend the current rally. That’s thanks to a cocktail of bullish factors driving the market, including strong corporate profits and the broadening rally in stocks, Siegel said, meaning that a larger percentage of stocks are participating in the market’s surge.
Of the 51% of S&P 500 companies that reported financials so far for the second quarter, 80% have surpassed analysts’ earnings expectations, according to data from FactSet. Meanwhile, around 70% of S&P 500 firms are trading above their 200-day moving average, Refinitiv data shows.
The strength of the US economy has also bucked expectations of a downturn, and Wall Street forecasters have dialed back their expectations for a recession. US GDP grew 2.4% in the second quarter and 2% in the first quarter.
The Employment Cost Index also came in below economists’ expectations for the second quarter, with wages and salaries increasing just 1% from March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. That’s another promising sign inflation is cooling and the US is in a “Goldilocks economy,” Siegel suggested, meaning macro conditions are just right for growth.
Siegel also dismissed fears from market bears that the hype over artificial intelligence is creating a bubble in stocks. The S&P 500 is trading around 20 times its 12-month forecasted earnings, which is close to the historical average.
That compares to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, when the benchmark index was selling at 30 times its 12-month forecasted earnings. Meanwhile, interest rates were higher back then, with the effective fed funds rate topping out at 6.51% in 2000.
“That was scary,” Siegel said of the internet stock craze. “I don’t regard today’s valuations as scary.”
Other Wall Street commentators have turned more bullish on the stock market as inflation continues to ease and markets expect the Fed to soon pause interest rate hikes, which weighed heavily on stocks in 2022.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee similarly predicted the S&P 500 was set for a new record in 2023, estimating the index would notch 4,825 by year-end if stocks clear three key hurdles.