China’s ‘military threat’ to Taiwan ‘is much more credible than it was 20 years ago’

Issued on: 07/08/2022 – 16:54Altered: 07/08/2022 – 17:00

As China’s largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan came to an end on Sunday, Taiwan’s Ministry of Transport said six of the seven “temporary danger zones” set up by China were out of operation as of Sunday afternoon, indicating a partial end. came. to the exercises. It added that the seventh zone, located in waters east of Taiwan, will remain in effect until 10 a.m. (0200 GMT) local time Monday. Beijing had also announced that new exercises will take place until August 15 in the Yellow Sea, located between China and the Korean peninsula. discovered 66 Chinese air force jets and 14 Chinese warships conducting exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait.

This military display of force in recent days was seen as a reaction to the visit to Taipei of Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives. Beijing considers the island of Taiwan an integral part of its territory, which must be returned to the national fold by choice or by force. The Chinese military exercises were also an opportunity for Western military experts to study the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. FRANCE 24 spoke to Professor Alessio Patalanoa specialist in East Asian maritime strategy at King’s College London.

Do the Chinese military exercises give any indication of Beijing’s ability to carry out a large-scale invasion of Taiwan?

It is clear that China’s military capabilities have gradually improved since their military exercises in 1995-96 and in the early 2000s. This time they have longer-range missiles and better quality ammunition (…) Although the Chinese Navy can now be more comfortably deployed outside the mainland, beyond the east coast of Taiwan, there is still a continuing lack of information on China’s submarine capabilities due to a lack of open sources.

The military threat is much more credible than it was twenty years ago. But it remains unclear whether the Chinese military can really conduct a large-scale, major military operation in Taiwan.

The Chinese military has not been involved in a major conflict since 1979. Does the Chinese military have the capacity to conduct modern joint operations involving naval, air and land forces?

These exercises show to what extent the military reform 2016, which has created five joint command areas, has enhanced these coordination capabilities. At first glance, this certainly seems to be the case.

But that doesn’t mean that this coordination will be perfect from start to finish. These Chinese military exercises lasted several days, while a military operation to invade Taiwan would take much longer. As we saw with the Russian invasion plans for Ukraine, there is a fundamental difference between a plan on a piece of paper and a real war.

Taiwan faces a shortage of pilots for its F-16 fleet recent Bloomberg report, which describes how Chinese aircraft raids are slowing the military’s ability to train new fighter pilots. Do you think these Chinese military exercises are contributing to the deterioration of Taiwan’s military capabilities?

Not necessary. What you’re seeing right now is the result of a 10-year transition period during which the Taiwanese have reconsidered their own defensive stance. In the mid-2010s, Taiwan made the choice to transition from conscription to a fully professional military force. They are somewhat backtracking on this decision, in part because Ukraine is proving that a system of territorial defense and a few civilian forces can be a better deterrent.

These transition periods cost money and create imbalances, such as the lack of pilots at some point. But the Taiwanese are aware of this and will eventually solve this problem.

This story is adapted from the original in French.