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US stocks closed higher Thursday but gave up their biggest gains as traders assess July CPI data.
Inflation last month came in at 3.2%, higher than June but lower than what was expected.
Markets are deciding if it was enough to warrant a full pivot by the Fed away from tight monetary policy.
US stocks ended Thursday in the green but gave up the biggest gains of the day as investors assessed the outlook for monetary policy on the back of July’s Consumer Price Index report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 450 points at one point earlier in the session before selling off as the day went on.
Investors are at odds over whether July’s inflation data, which showed prices rose at a slower pace than expected but still faster than what was clocked in June, is enough for the Federal Reserve to make its long-awaited dovish pivot.
Prices last month rose at a rate of 3.2%, slightly below expectations of 3.3%.
“[W]e think the July CPI report adds weight to the case for a September pause. However, what is good enough for a pause is unlikely to be the same as what is good enough for a cut,” analysts from BNP Paribas wrote in a note.
While a pause would be welcomed by stock market investors, inflation falling closer to the Fed’s 2% target is what would be needed to solidify the outlook for interest rate cuts by the first quarter of next year, observers say. That could also coincide with what many believe will be a mild US recession in the early part of 2024.
Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:
S&P 500: 4,468.91, up 0.03%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 35,175.75, up 0.15% (+52 points)Nasdaq Composite: 13,737.99, up 0.12%
Here’s what else is happening today
Wall Street is loving Disney’s nearly 30% hike to streaming prices. The stock closed 4.8% higher. Massive home-price appreciation over the last decade could be the key to keeping consumers afloat as savings dwindle. Russia says it’ll stop buying foreign currencies through the rest of this year and launch a digital ruble to prop up its own currency. The stock market’s “no recession rally” is over. Investors should expect flat returns for the rest of the year.
In commodities, bonds, and crypto:
West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.01% to $82.70 a barrel. Brent, the international benchmark, fell 1.44% to $86.29 a barrel. Gold dipped 0.24% to $1,946.00 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose nine basis points to 4.10%. Bitcoin fell 0.52% to $29,411.