China’s economy now may never surpass the US as the world’s largest, according to a survey by Bloomberg Economics.
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China may now never become the world’s largest economy, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Forecasters expect its GDP to briefly pass the US’s in the mid-2040s, before “falling back behind”.
Beijing has struggled to revive growth and shore up its crisis-hit property sector this year.
China’s struggles to revive growth and shore up its crisis-laden property market this year mean it’s unlikely to ever permanently take the US’s crown as the world’s largest economy, according to one recent forecast.
Bloomberg Economics predicted on Tuesday that China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will briefly surpass the US’s in the mid-2040s, but by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind”.
Their latest outlook comes two-thirds of the way through a bruising 2023 that’s highlighted China’s economic struggles after nearly three years of harsh zero-COVID lockdowns.
In July, the country’s second-quarter GDP growth came in way below what forecasters had expected, while Beijing is also battling deflation and a severe real-estate crisis that has threatened to bring down several local property behemoths, including Country Garden.
The flurry of bad data has led to US president Joe Biden calling China’s economy a “ticking time bomb” – and several other strategists warning the current downturn there could snowball into a slump that drags on global growth.
“China is down-shifting onto a slower growth path sooner than we expected,” Bloomberg Economics said.
“The post-Covid rebound has run out of steam, reflecting a deepening property slump and fading confidence in Beijing’s management of the economy. Weak confidence risks becoming entrenched – resulting in an enduring drag on growth potential.”
The economists – who previously saw China overtaking the US in the 2030s – believe that GDP growth in the world’s most-populous country will slow from its current level of over 6% to just 1% by 2050, revised down from an earlier prediction of 1.6%.