A Ukrainian strike on Russian vehicles around the village of Avdiivka, released in late October 2023 by Ukraine’s 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade.
110th Separate Mechanized Brigade
Russia launched its first major offensive in months on the village of Avdiivka — but it’s not going well.
Ukraine and Western observers have pointed to huge Russian vehicle and troop losses.
An analyst told Insider it shows Russia hasn’t learned lessons from earlier big defeats.
Russia’s is taking heavy losses as it pushes hard to take the Ukrainian village of Avdiivka — illustrating in the process that it isn’t learning from previous defeats, an analyst said.
Riley Bailey, who works at the Institute for the Study of War, told Insider that Russia’s attempts to attack Avdiivka are going badly because it has failed to adapt since its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
“The kind of chaotic mechanized assaults that we’re seeing around right now, these very disorderly armored columns of armored vehicles of stopping and getting struck by Ukrainian forces, that’s very reminiscent of a lot of the assaults that we saw on the Russian side at the start of the full-scale invasion,” Bailey said.
Western observers have remarked on large Russian losses around Avdiivka, where Russia has failed to make significant advances despite committing large numbers of troops and vehicles.
Bailey pointed to Russia’s efforts in Vuhledar, another town nearby, where Russian attacks ended in defeat and huge tank losses earlier this year.
That should have prompted a new approach, but instead Russia hasn’t “learned a lesson about how to properly conduct mechanized maneuver warfare,” he said.
A still from Ukrainian footage released on Sunday shows burning vehicles near Avdiivka.
110th Separate Mechanized Brigade.
Russia launched its assault on Avdiivka, in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, on October 10, Ukraine said.
UK intelligence said it was likely Russia’s most serious offensive operation since at least January.
Ukrainian officials have described relentless attacks. Ukraine says it is consistently repelling them, and denying Russia the ability to encircle Avdiivka.
No major Russian breakthrough has been reported, suggesting that Ukraine’s claim to be holding the line is correct.
Analysts at The Atlantic Council said on Tuesday that Russia had “achieved only limited advances while suffering very significant losses in both men and equipment.”
Ukraine said Russia lost more than 6,000 soldiers and more than 400 armored vehicles and tanks in one week, though it isn’t possible to verify its figures.
US and other Western officials have sometimes given more modest assessments of the damage Ukraine has been able to inflict on Russia.
Ukrainian units have shared footage of intense fighting and destroyed Russian vehicles.
Bailey said Avdiivka proves that Russia hasn’t “addressed persistent, pervasive systematic issues in their offensive campaign.”
“And instead of addressing those issues, then launching a larger offensive operation, they went ahead with launching the offensive operation anyways.”
Avdiivka is a gateway to Russia-occupied Ukraine, making it a big prize for both sides. Ukraine recaptured the village in September.
Bailey described Russia’s fight there as having “met pretty immediate setbacks,” resulting in losses of troops and vehicles.
Russia then got quieter, in what Ukraine called a “regrouping,” he said. Russia’s attacks, and losses, have escalated again since.
The UK MOD said on Sunday that Russia’s assaults at Avdiivka “have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties,” citing Ukraine’s own figures Ukraine.
Ukraine said on Friday that Russia lost almost 50 tanks in a day there.
Russian President Vladimir Putin last week appeared to downplay expectations for what Russia might achieve there.
Russia appears to have made some advances, with the ISW assessing that it took control of territory northeast of Avdiivka. But Ukraine has also made confirmed progress in other directions from the village.
The fighting in Avdiivka is continuing. The ISW said on Sunday that Russia was funneling more resources to the area.
Both Russia and Ukraine have struggled against each others’ defenses this year, Bailey noted, resulting in a grinding war with few breakthroughs for either side.
Bailey described Avdiivka and its surrounding areas as some of Ukraine’s most-fortified places, contested since Russian-allied troops first began attacking eastern Ukraine in 2014.
He said it didn’t make much sense to attack there. Perhaps, he said, the Russians were hoping to catch Ukraine off-guard, as the area had been relatively quiet.
But, as Insider previously reported, the US said that an attack there was not in reality much of a surprise — and Ukraine appears to have been ready.