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Governments around the world, including Australia’s, plan to expand the fossil fuel industry to about twice what would be in line with their commitment to try to stop warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a United Nations report.
Key points:
The report reveals that coal production will increase until 2030 and that of oil and gas until 2050 and beyond.
He says gas is being touted as a “bridge” in the move to renewables, but there appears to be no plan to move away from it.
Australian lobby group says there is no way to achieve transition without gas
The report reveals that governments are considering not only exceeding production levels consistent with global warming limits of 1.5 and 2°C, but also their own emissions commitments and stated policies.
It comes ahead of a major UN climate summit in the United Arab Emirates later this month, at which rich countries could pledge to compensate poor countries for the increasingly catastrophic effects of climate change. past fossil fuels.
But oil and gas producers have opposed the report and say gas in particular will be needed for decades to support renewable energy.
They also said the gas would help support the processing and manufacturing of minerals needed to clean up the economy.
Latest output gap report, released today, suggests governments’ ‘plans and projections’ suggest coal production would continue to rise until 2030 and oil and gas production would rise until “at least 2050”.
The report finds that while many of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers have pledged to reduce their emissions to “net zero” by mid-century, none of them have committed to reducing production coal, oil or gas in line with the 1.5°C target. .
“The 2023 Output Gap Report is a striking indictment of rampant climate carelessness,” said UN Secretary-General Antonia Guterres.
“Governments are literally doubling their production of fossil fuels, which is a double problem for people and the planet.”
Dubai, a city synonymous with petrodollars, is hosting a major climate summit.(AP: Kamran Jebreili)
The carbon budget “almost increasing”
Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, deplored what she sees as short-sighted actions by many governments.
She said the upcoming COP28 conference in Dubai, where world leaders will try to find ways to tackle global warming, would be a crucial test of their resolve.
“Government plans to increase fossil fuel production undermine the energy transition needed to achieve net zero emissions, creating economic risks and calling into question the future of humanity,” Ms Andersen said.
“Starting at COP28, nations must come together for a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas to mitigate future turbulence and benefit every person on this planet.”
According to the report, the use of fossil fuels accounts for almost 90 percent of global emissions.
He said that without limiting their use, the world – by 2030 – could exceed the so-called emissions budget which would give a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5C by the end of the century.
The authors say fossil fuel emissions and production must peak “and decline rapidly” to keep goals for limiting global warming within reach.
Instead, they said that “governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030, which would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than what would be compatible with limiting warming to 2°C.”
“Few countries have developed fossil fuel production projections aligned with their national climate goals,” the report notes.
“The disconnect between governments’ fossil fuel production plans and their climate commitments is also apparent for all three fuels (coal, oil and gas).”
Producers say gas can be the bridge to a renewable future, but the UN disagrees.(© picitstocker — stock.adobe.com)
“A Bridge to Nowhere” filmed
To underline their point, the authors noted that 17 of the world’s 20 largest energy producers had committed to becoming carbon neutral while increasing their production.
They said Australia, where coal and gas production is expected to increase, was no different.
They have been particularly critical of efforts to make gas the essential fuel in the transition to renewable energy.
“Many countries are promoting gas as a ‘bridge’ or ‘bridge’ fuel, but without any apparent plan to move away from it,” the authors write.
“However, gas could hinder or delay the transition to renewable energy systems by relying on fossil fuel-based systems and institutions.
“Moreover, despite some local air pollution benefits from replacing coal, advances in quantifying methane leaks along the gas supply chain have significantly reduced the expected climate benefits of replacing coal with the gas.”
The authors also attack the ambitions of many fossil fuel producers and some governments to reduce emissions by storing them underground or capturing them directly from the air.
They said the current amount of emissions stored through carbon capture was negligible and that four out of five projects to demonstrate the technology over the past 30 years had failed.
According to the authors, “the potential failure of these measures to become sufficiently viable on a large scale” has only reinforced the need to phase out production of new fossil fuel projects.
“Powering economies with clean, efficient energy is the only way to end energy poverty and reduce emissions at the same time,” Ms Andersen said.
Australian Energy Producers boss Samantha McCulloch says gas is vital to the energy transition.(ABC News: Mark Moore)
Gas to “unblock” green energy?
Faced with criticism, the head of the lobby which represents Australian oil and gas producers hit back.
Australian Energy Producers chief executive Samantha McCulloch said gas, in particular, would continue to be vital to the global economy for many years to come.
Ms McCulloch said gas would be needed not only to make up the deficit when the sun didn’t shine and the wind didn’t blow, but it would also support much of the world’s industrial base.
To this end, she stressed that gas would be crucial for processors and mineral manufacturers, as it would help deliver green technologies such as batteries and electric vehicles.
“It is widely established that gas will continue to help unlock and support renewable energy generation as a reliable backup source and partner to electricity networks as coal leaves the system,” Ms McCulloch said.
“Not to mention the many other uses of gas in the production of low-carbon hydrogen, as a fuel and feedstock in the manufacturing industry, creating everyday products, including the processing of essential minerals needed to reach net zero .
“For example, the Australian Energy Market Operator…showed how gas would continue to be needed during periods of peak demand, including periods of high renewable generation.”
Ms McCulloch also backed industry claims that gas produces “around 50 per cent fewer life-cycle emissions” than coal in power generation.
UN boss lashes governments for ‘literally doubling down’ on fossil fuel expansions