A Ukrainian solider in the Donetsk region.
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Ukraine’s winter goal is disrupting Russia’s logistics, a military spokesperson said.The aim is to make Russian forces “hungry, cold, and have no desire to fight.” He said Russia “should expect surprises from the sky.”
The main goal for Ukraine’s military over the winter months will be disrupting Russia’s military logistics so much that its troops are left with no will to fight.
Volodymyr Fitio, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ground Forces Command, said on television the aim was to make Russian forces in Ukraine as uncomfortable as possible, the Kyiv Post reported.
He said Ukraine’s “main task” over the winter will be to disrupt Russia’s logistics “so that they are hungry, cold, and have no desire to fight.”
Fitio said “the enemy should expect surprises from the sky” as a result. “Our main task is to ensure that everything happening now helps the armed forces of Ukraine and, vice versa, harms Russian occupiers.”
Earlier this month Fitio said Ukraine’s aim for the winter is cutting off Russia’s military supply chains to “freeze them out.”
Colder weather typically slows down conflicts. Last winter neither side saw any major breakthroughs as Ukraine fought back against Russia’s invasion.
But Fitio’s comments reveal how Ukraine still plans on using the period to its advantage, even though snow, mud, and ice slows down elements of fighting such as troop movements.
Russia was able to use last winter to lay its network of defenses and land-mine fields. That turned Ukraine into the world’s most heavily mined country and has held back Ukraine’s counteroffensive effort to take back more territory, which started in June.
Russia also used last winter to fire missiles and drones at Ukraine’s power infrastructure. That action killed civilians and lead to Ukraine setting up heating stations where people could stay warm.
Ukraine warned that it expects Russia to do the same again, as has its allies.
Dr Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said winter gives Ukraine the “opportunity to maximise Russian losses.” He noted that last winter Russian casualties “were exceedingly high, even when Russia had fires superiority.”
Russia’s troops can be stuck “outside, getting wet and cold” and targeted strikes by Ukriane could degrade Russian logistics, Watling said.
But there are also risks that things can go wrong for Ukraine over winter, he added: “If Ukraine does not continue to pressure the Russian line in the winter, the risk is that these defence lines are expanded.”