Former President Donald Trump throughout 2023 has sought to solidify his dominant standing in Iowa.
AP Photo/Bryon Houlgrave
The first of the 2024 presidential nominating contests are now less than two months away.Republicans will host their first nominating contest in Iowa, with the caucuses set for January 15.Former President Trump continues to sport wide leads, but Nikki Haley has been closing the gap.
GOP presidential candidates for months have been barnstorming across the early-nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina to convince voters of why they deserve to be the face of the party.
Former President Donald Trump has been the overwhelming favorite in the Republican field since the day he announced his campaign last year, but he’s facing challenges from an array of candidates including Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Doug Burgum of North Dakota; former Govs. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas; and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Along the way, several candidates have exited the race, including former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, and conservative commentator Larry Elder.
While Trump has continued to enjoy solid leads in the early states, could his ongoing legal challenges affect his standing once the trials begin next year? Could one of the contenders deny him the easy victories he’s looking to rack up as he seeks a rematch against his likely Democratic challenger, President Joe Biden?
With 2024 quickly approaching, here’s a look at the first four GOP presidential nominating contests:
Iowa caucuses
Date: January 15, 2024
Delegates at stake: 40
Iowa will be the biggest test of Trump’s enduring hold over the GOP. Once a perennial presidential swing state, the former president won Iowa by 8 points in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections as Democrats have struggled in the Midwestern state in recent years.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida has visited nearly every Iowa county since he launched his presidential campaign.
AP Photo/Bryon Houlgrave
The Trump campaign sought to put a stake in Iowa early, as a show of force to the other contenders and as a way to shore up his support among evangelical voters, a highly influential bloc in the state.
DeSantis, who has seen his campaign slide after being viewed by most observers as Trump’s leading conservative alternative, has put an intent focus on winning Iowa. As of early November, the Florida governor had traveled to roughly 85 out of the state’s 99 counties.
And DeSantis recently won the coveted endorsement of Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is broadly popular among Iowa conservatives.
Haley and Ramaswamy have also been a frequent presence in the state, which for Republicans will kick off their nominating contest. The Democratic National Committee, in a move that frustrated Hawkeye State Democrats, removed Iowa from its first-in-the-nation status earlier this year in favor of South Carolina. Iowa Democrats will instead have a mail-in caucus, with the results being released on March 5, or Super Tuesday.
Nevada caucuses
Date: February 8, 2024
Delegates at stake: 26
Earlier this year, Nevada Republicans tweaked the rules of their 2024 caucuses, barring GOP presidential contenders from participating in the contest if they’re listed on the ballot for the state-run primary, which will be held on February 6. The state GOP also severely limited political action committees from being involved in the caucuses, a change that puts DeSantis and his Never Back Down super PAC at a disadvantage as Trump has retained the fervent support from the party base that generally populates such contests.
While the major GOP candidates are expected to compete in the state, Trump’s current edge there may make it difficult for them to get traction in the state.
New Hampshire primary
Date: January 23, 2024
Delegates at stake: 22
This New England primary battleground will also be a major test of Trump’s strength in the GOP nominating contest, as the state continues to hold firm to its rugged independence and may not follow the lead of Iowa caucusgoers. Trump won the state’s GOP primary in 2016, but this year will be different, as he faces spirited challenges from Christie, DeSantis, and Haley in the Granite State.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has steadily seen her support rise in the GOP presidential contest, especially in critical New Hampshire.
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
While Trump has consistently held sizable leads in New Hampshire this year, he’s often hovering at or below 50%, which provides a decent opening for an insurgent candidate if they’re able to effectively make the argument against the former president’s renomination. Haley, who has campaigned heavily in New Hampshire, has seen a significant bump in support there, and it’s not inconceivable that she could potentially win or come close to winning the state should Trump’s support erode in the weeks before the primary.
Christie’s sharp criticism of Trump has not endeared him to primary voters in many states, but in recent months he has polled in double-digits in New Hampshire and is sometimes in third-place in polling. If Christie is to generate momentum headed into the South Carolina primary, he must do well in New Hampshire.
Democrats have a more complicated situation in New Hampshire, as the state has set the Democratic Primary for January 23, which would violate the DNC’s revamped schedule that elevated the South Carolina primary as the party’s first-in-the-nation contest. The state could face punishment from the DNC — including the loss of delegates in the party convention — for defying the new schedule.
South Carolina primary
Date: February 24, 2024
Delegates at stake: 50
Since Trump entered politics, the South has been his biggest base of support, as he has long held the support of conservatives, conservative-leaning independents, and evangelical Christians in the region. The South Carolina primary should be no different for him, as he’s led in virtually every poll there this year and has the backing of top state Republicans like Gov. Henry McMaster and Sen. Lindsey Graham.
But South Carolina is also Haley’s home and the state where she served as governor from 2011 to 2017. And with Scott having recently suspended his campaign after an underwhelming bid that failed to cut into Trump’s support, Haley is the sole South Carolinian in the race. While Trump remains the favorite in South Carolina, Haley could see some late-breaking undecideds shift in her favor, giving her increased viability as an alternative to Trump ahead of Super Tuesday.
Christie and Ramaswamy have also campaigned throughout South Carolina for months, but if Haley overperforms in her home state, it could stifle any New Hampshire momentum on their end. DeSantis will also be looking for a solid showing in the state amid his sustained focus on Iowa.
Democrats are set to host their South Carolina primary on February 3, the first major party-recognized contest on their calendar, with Biden facing challenges from Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and author and political activist Marianne Williamson. In 2020, South Carolina propelled Biden to the Democratic nomination and the presidency, and he’s looking for another robust showing in the state.