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A new variant of Covid has begun to sweep through Britain, raising fears of a new wave just as the NHS tries to cope with increasing winter pressures.
Officials say JN.1 is vastly outperforming all other known strains, accounting for one in 13 cases in England last month.
But the true extent of its spread is likely to be even greater now, although overall Covid cases remain low.
Bosses at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) are now formally tracking the variant, although that does not mean they consider it a threat.
Leading infectious disease experts insist the chances of any new variant emerging that threatens to put the world back into lockdown are slim.
The threat of Covid has been drastically reduced by the wall of immunity built by vaccines and infections.
The graph shows the Covid lineage seen in the UK between June and November this year. JN.1, was behind 7.9 percent of cases last month (as shown in the graph). It is a strain of BA.2.86, known as Pirola.
Covid cases in England remained stable at the end of November. Data suggests that around 500 people were testing positive per day. However, since only a few are still being tested for the virus, the actual number of victims will be much higher.
As such, it typically causes a flu-like illness, unlike the alarming and potentially life-threatening symptoms experienced in 2020.
However, a possible rise in cases would cause chaos in the NHS, which is already seeing a rise in norovirus, flu and RSV patients.
Data suggests that pertussis cases are also increasing.
Health chiefs have warned that viruses will continue to spread over the coming weeks.
Professor Julian Redhead, national clinical director for urgent and emergency care at NHS England, said rates of all seasonal viruses are “slowly increasing”.
He added: ‘Demand for hospitals and staff remains high.
“And as we experience more periods of cold weather and people gathering indoors for holiday events and year-end celebrations, we expect to see a continued increase in community spread of winter viruses.”
This will lead to hospital admissions in some cases, Professor Redhead warned.
JN.1 was first detected by the UKHSA as part of a routine plan designed to assess emerging infections.
It was flagged because of a problematic mutation in its spike protein, one known to help the virus evade the body’s immune system.
UKHSA bosses noted that particular tension was also taking off internationally and in the UK.
JN.1 has now been designated as an official variant, designated V-23DEC-01 for official purposes. The process means that it is being followed up formally.
As of Monday, 302 Covid cases in the UK were caused by JN.1, of which the vast majority (223) occurred in England. But this will be a huge underestimate because only a fraction of sick patients are currently tested.
As of mid-November, it was responsible for 7.9 per cent of cases in England.
UKHSA epidemiologist Dr Meaghan Kall said JN.1 has an estimated weekly growth rate advantage of 84.2 per cent.
This means the variant is taking off faster than any other strain seen in at least eight months, he said.
Dr Kall wrote on
UKHSA bossesBut they are not completely unaware of this variant thanks to their assessments of its ancestral strain.
NHS data published today shows that an average of 234 flu patients were in hospital per day last week, an increase of 53 per cent in just one week.
Cases of norovirus, the winter vomiting bug, are also increasing: 406 in wards per day, a 15 percent increase in a week.
Additionally, norovirus cases led to the closure of 92 beds each day, on average, in a bid to prevent the highly contagious virus, which causes vomiting and diarrhea, from spreading to other patients.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases also increased 11 percent in one week among children, with 146 hospitalizations per day.
Around 2,000 Covid patients a day were admitted to hospitals in November, according to official figures.
The NHS said it has plans to cope with the growing pressures, including extra ambulances and beds, as well as the expansion of “virtual wards”, where some patients are monitored and treated from home.
Separate data from the UKHSA shows that suspected cases of whooping cough, also known as 100-day cough due to the duration of symptoms, are on the rise.
Some 716 people were thought to be sick with a bacterial lung infection between July and the end of November, more than three times as many as the 217 reported during the same period in 2022, their figures show.
A whooping cough vaccine is offered to babies as part of routine NHS vaccination and to pregnant women, who are at higher risk of severe illness.
Dr Gayatri Amirthalingam, consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: “Before the introduction of routine immunization, pertussis used to affect tens of thousands of people.
‘Thanks to vaccination, this has decreased dramatically, but the infection has not completely disappeared, as neither infection nor vaccination can provide lifelong protection.
‘The social distancing and lockdown measures imposed across the UK during the Covid pandemic had a significant impact on the spread of infections, including whooping cough.
“Unsurprisingly, we are now seeing cases of whooping cough rise again, so it is vital that pregnant women make sure they get vaccinated to protect their baby.”
The NHS said it has plans to cope with the growing pressures, including extra ambulances and beds, as well as the expansion of “virtual wards”, where some patients are monitored and treated from home.
Health chiefs also called on those eligible to receive booster flu and Covid vaccinations to reduce the risk of becoming seriously ill and needing hospital care.
They urged Britons to visit pharmacies and local urgent treatment centers where appropriate, as the rise in virus patients is causing delays to A&E to increase further.
The health service also has to deal with the latest round of strike action announced by doctors in training, who will have to go on strike for three days starting at 7am on December 20 over pay issues.
The British Medical Association, which is co-ordinating the action, rejected a further 3 per cent pay rise on top of the 8.8 per cent rise already awarded for this year. The union has asked for a 35 percent raise.