Nikki Haley bypasses reaching out to Iowa independents and Democrats ahead of the caucuses

MOUNT VERNON, Iowa – With her electoral standing stagnant in Iowa, Nikki Haley and her allies are choosing not to target independent or Democratic voters in the state, overlooking a potential opportunity to persuade them to change their party registrations on caucus night. .

The group that is effectively running the ground operation on Haley’s behalf in Iowa, knocking on doors to mobilize voters for the caucuses, said it is not making a concerted, focused effort to turn out independents next month.

“Most of who we’re talking to are registered Republicans, because they’re the ones who caucus,” said Drew Klein, senior adviser at Americans for Prosperity Action. “There really hasn’t been any historical indication in recent history of campaigns really targeting independents, and they also have a pretty low rate of showing up to run.”

In Iowa, the state Republican Party allows voters to change their party affiliation and register as Republicans on the night of the Iowa caucuses. There are more registered independents in Iowa than registered Republicans.

NBC News analysis of Iowa voter registration statistics found that up to 11% of Iowans who participated in the 2012 Republican caucuses were independents or Democrats who changed their party affiliation on caucus day. The 2012 election cycle was the last time Iowa held only a Republican caucus, and not a Democratic caucus.

Haley is currently fighting with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to be the leading alternative to former President Donald Trump. Although her political views are far from liberal, Haley has presented a more moderate image on issues such as abortion than DeSantis, who has leaned further to the right and made a name for himself as a cultural warrior.

Haley’s campaign, which is more cash-strapped compared to Trump’s, has also not prioritized a promotional speech aimed at urging non-Republican voters to turn out, although her campaign argues that her message on the road appeals to them.

“She’s reaching out to everyone,” said Olivia Pérez-Cubas, a spokeswoman for Haley’s campaign, who said Haley is open to support from independents. However, she did not mention knocking on doors or other specific campaign tactics to woo them. “We are trying to attract as many people as possible to our cause. And she is a proven conservative, but if she can win hearts and minds, that’s great.”

Independents could be an important path to overcoming their non-Trump Republican rivals. The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows Haley leading DeSantis by 6% among Iowa independents, but notably trailing Trump by just 13% among the group, a far cry from his overall deficit 35% among likely caucus attendees (the survey’s margin of error is 4%). in a CBS News Poll Outside of New Hampshire this month, Haley leads DeSantis by an even larger margin (30%) among independents.

And in New Hampshire, unlike Iowa, there is a more intentional effort by allies to mobilize these voters.

Independent super PACs for Nikki hit the ground running advertisements in New Hampshire this week highlighting the voices of independent voters. One of the group’s founders, Frank Laukien, told NBC News that he intends to spend more than a million dollars to directly contact a group of 200,000 independent voters.

“If we can convince 15 or 30,000 additional voters to vote for Nikki Haley who otherwise wouldn’t vote, it will make a big difference,” Laukien said. “Iowa’s process is somewhat opaque and unusual. … [New Hampshire] “It could change the trajectory of these elections, and that is what we are looking for.”

Haley’s campaign spokeswoman did not detail his specific independent outreach in New Hampshire, but said the candidate “wants to grow the party and appeal to more people, and that absolutely includes independents.”

Last week in New Hampshire, DeSantis told a crowd that he should be the last candidate to oppose Trump because Haley would have to rely on support from voters outside the Republican Party to beat the former president in the primary.

“There’s Haley; supposedly she’s the favorite of people who don’t like Trump,” DeSantis said from the stage. “The reality is that she cannot beat Trump in a Republican primary. Because? Because conservatives and rank-and-file Republicans will not vote for her.”

Despite the possibility that Haley is in the best position to trim Trump’s nomination bid, data and conversations with Iowa voters also suggest there is not overwhelming enthusiasm to switch parties in order to endorse to Haley on caucus night.

Four years ago, Carol Petersen of Ankeny changed her party registration to run in the Democratic caucus. Petersen, reached by phone last week, said she intends to change her registration again, this time to Republican, on Jan. 15.

“It’s funny you ask because I was telling my husband this week that I think I’m going to change my affiliation so I can meet with Republicans, and I looked it up on the secretary of state’s website and you can do it the same day. caucus night,” Petersen said, adding that she will recruit friends of hers in her Des Moines suburb to accompany her.

Petersen, however, said he plans to form a committee for former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, not Haley.

When asked why he wouldn’t meet with the former South Carolina governor, Petersen responded: “When you’re here in Iowa, you see all the commercials. Right now, what he’s saying is that his views are just as crazy as everyone else’s. “I would like to see someone who was more of a normal conservative Republican.”

NBC News reviewed caucus morning voter registration statistics from each election cycle and compared party registrations to post-caucus numbers. In 2020, up to 12% of Iowans who participated in the Democratic Party caucus could have been independents or Republicans who showed up at their caucus site and re-registered as Democrats.

“Independents typically haven’t played a big role in that,” said NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom pollster J. Ann Selzer. “It is a big commitment to go to the caucus. … It requires some motivation to be willing to do it.”

The 2016 statistics are less clear because both the Iowa Republican and Democratic parties held their caucuses. But potentially, up to 15% of Republican caucus attendees were previously registered as independents or Democrats.

Linda Olshewsky and John Olshewsky live here in Mount Vernon. Despite knowing they could register as Republicans on caucus night, the couple said they will not participate.

“I would never go to the Republican caucus,” said Linda, a registered Democrat.

“Yes I’ve thinked about it. But I won’t,” continued John, a registered independent.

Even then, the couple said they would not support Haley; instead, they would hypothetically meet with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

“I don’t think Nikki Haley is saying what she believes,” John said.

In 2022, the campaign for then-Rep. Liz Cheney, while trying to fend off a Republican rival backed by Trump, made a concerted effort to persuade non-Republican voters to change her party registration so they could vote for her in the Republican primary.

Although Cheney handily lost the race, Wyoming voter registration statistics showed that the number of registered Democratic and independent voters dropped by more than 24,000 people in the months leading up to primary day. That share of the electorate (if each voter had effectively re-registered as a Republican) would have represented 14% of the overall GOP primary turnout, a notable boost for Cheney.