Voters will venture into subzero temperatures Monday to kick off the Republican presidential nomination race with the Iowa caucuses, the first big test of whether runaway frontrunner Donald Trump is as confident as he seems.
With a commanding lead in the polls, the ex-president is expected to easily win the Midwest state’s first round of voting as he looks to be the Republican standard-bearer against President Joe Biden in November.
But Iowans could face the coldest conditions in the modern era of presidential election campaigns, with snowstorms and a potential wind chill of -26 degrees Fahrenheit (-32 degrees Celsius).
Trump and his leading rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, were forced to cancel their homecoming appearances as the threat of Monday’s turnout added intrigue to a campaign season that is already an unknown quantity.
Despite his apparent strength, Trump has been indicted four times since he was last a candidate and is preparing for the possible collapse of his business empire in his native New York in a civil fraud case.
“If DeSantis’ massive ground effort, combined with a recent Haley wave, can push Trump a few points below 50 percent, that will be the first meaningful sign that Trump can be defeated,” said political analyst Alex Avetoom, who worked on Republican John McCain’s report. 2008 presidential campaign.
“However, this paradigm-shifting reality – that Trump could be defeated – will only happen if the rest of the field consolidates behind one anti-Trump candidate.”
– Bad predictor –
For all the talk of miraculous leaps, the Iowa race is hardly competitive: A new poll from Suffolk University puts Trump at 54 percent of likely caucusgoers, while Haley moves into second place, but still only at 20 percent.
“I’m voting for Trump again,” 37-year-old truck driver Jeff Nikolas told AFP, adding that “he may be stubborn, but he can get things done.”
The Suffolk University survey was more bad news for Florida Governor DeSantis, who polled just 13 percent and saw his claim as heir to the post-Trump Republican Party overshadowed by Haley.
The former South Carolina governor is looking to exceed expectations to cement her claim as Trump’s top challenger when she enters her favored state of New Hampshire the following week.
Iowa is a notoriously poor predictor of the eventual nominee, but is considered crucial to winnowing the field and serving as a springboard to the next battleground states, including Haley’s home state.
Hurt by defeat in 2016 after skipping much of Iowa’s campaign trail, Trump this time built an impressive network of “precinct captains” to corral votes — but he was as notable for court appearances as campaign events .
In a state that likes to meet its candidates in person, DeSantis has made an effort to highlight his own game, which has taken him to all 99 counties.
– ‘Eye candy’ –
However, the Iraq veteran and conservative hardliner will be under heavy pressure to drop out if he finishes third – although Avetoom warned not to count him out.
“Review respondents are not necessarily attendees of the Iowa caucus, and DeSantis precinct operations are led by top-notch agents who have amassed an impressive number of pledges of caucus support,” he said.
Edward Segal, a former press secretary for Democratic and Republican lawmakers, reiterated the benefits of strong grassroots competition and pointed to at least nine presidents who toured Iowa by train during campaigns.
“Whistle-stop campaign trains can still serve as eye candy to attract the attention of voters and the media,” the analyst told AFP.
A good night for Trump on Monday, he added, would “get 60 percent or more of the vote.”
The Republican primary also features a number of low-scoring candidates, including biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has promised a third-place finish in Iowa but failed to qualify for the final televised debate.
Iowa Democrats will also attend Jan. 15 caucuses — gatherings at which local members of a political party gather to register their candidate preferences — but will vote by mail from January through March.
Biden is expected to comfortably defeat self-help author Marianne Williamson and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips.
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