A new dynamic is developing in the presidential primary, with Donald Trump and Nikki Haley’s campaigns shifting to one-on-one combat as the race moves into the next phase with a competitive contest expected in New Hampshire.
It could get ugly quickly.
Team Trump is preparing to unleash a level of vitriol against Haley, his former UN ambassador, that she has yet to see, according to several of the former president’s advisers and allies.
“Nikki should get out while people are still talking about her by 2028, or she’ll end up like all the 2016s that no one considers future presidents anymore,” said a Trump campaign adviser. “A prolonged ground war will cost us our money, but it will cost Nikki her reputation and image.”
But Haley is also moving more aggressively against Trump, already characterizing the race as a choice between an aging politician drowning in old grievances and a new face promising stability and generational change. Although she came in third in Iowa on Monday, she declared the race a two-person race between her and Trump.
“(T)he field of candidates has effectively been narrowed to two, with only Trump and Nikki Haley having substantial support in both New Hampshire and South Carolina,” Betsy Ankney, Haley’s campaign manager, said in a memo in response to Iowa results.
A person familiar with Haley’s campaign thinking said: “She largely defends her record and compares it to one of drama, chaos, revenge and dysfunction. “Now that it’s a two-person race, I think the contrast becomes clearer.”
Haley is expected to mount a counteroffensive against Trump while also conveying her political similarities with him, noting that he respected her as his appointee and that she once welcomed his ability to blow up business as usual.
New Hampshire will mark a change for Haley. In Iowa, she aimed most of his firepower at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis because the two were in contention for second place, well behind Trump. Her only focus now is on Trump, the person close to the campaign said, and Haley sees the race as a two-person race because of his recent surge in the state. Polls regularly put Haley in second place behind Trump in New Hampshire, with one that shows it at only 7 points.
In fact, Haley’s post-caucus comments Monday night did a disservice to Trump, whom she repeatedly compared to President Joe Biden, saying the two are “approximately” 80 years old and have added trillions of dollars to the national debt.
“Both Trump and Biden lack a vision for the future of our country, because they are both consumed by the past, by investigations, by vendetta, by grievances,” he said. “Americans deserve better.”
For his part, Trump on Monday called his competitors “very smart people, very capable people.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s global attack on social media is expected, both through ads and directly from Trump, who is already portraying Haley as liberal and anti-MAGA. (Haley’s campaign responded Monday, noting that the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. sent mail from New Hampshire that described her as a supporter of the MAGA agenda). The super PAC has also focused exclusively on Haley in recent weeks, charging in an ad that he was “too weak – too liberal – to fix the border.”“
A Trump package advised observers to anticipate Trump to attack Haley more directly and to “look to him and others to make sure voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina understand the chasm that divides her from the core of our party.” .
All the harsh words come after Trump had already escalated his offensive against Haley, as polls showed her gaining ground on him in New Hampshire. He called Haley a “globalist RINO.” in social truth on Monday (i.e., a “Republican in name only”). At an event in Iowa this month, he hinted at old, unsubstantiated accusations that Haley had had an affair. He has spread false theories about the birth of Haley, whose parents emigrated from India, and He mocked her by calling her “Birdbrain.”
“Nikki Haley is a fictional character who is not ready for the bright lights or the big stage,” Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, told NBC News. “As people learn about Haley’s Romney-esque, open-borders, globalist RINO ways of tax-raising, they are less likely to support her.”
Haley has received some air cover. In New Hampshire, the pro-Haley PAC Stand for America has aired television ads directly refuting Trump, including one that says he’s targeting Haley because she’s a proven threat. Other, titled “Tantrum” takes aim more aggressively at Trump, saying his entire campaign is “based on revenge.”
How Haley handles Trump’s attacks, both incoming and outgoing, in the next phase of the campaign could prove vital to her political survival.
In the run-up to the Iowa caucuses, Haley refrained from attacking Trump too much. In his speeches, he was careful to say that he supported many of Trump’s policies and that he was “the right president at the right time.” He has also said that he would forgive him if he is found guilty of any of the impending criminal charges against him. But he routinely adds that “chaos follows him” and that the country is ready for someone who can “fix things,” not just break them.
But as Iowa came to a close, Haley signaled she was eager to fight Trump. On Monday morning, his campaign launched an advertisement in New Hampshire that grouped Trump and Biden as unpleasant and unable to look forward.
“The two most unpopular politicians in America? Trump and Biden,” says the narrator. “They are both consumed by chaos, negativity and past grievances.”
In Iowa, a digital place The morning of the caucuses he trolled Trump and his claim that he would win by 60 points.
But when it comes to hitting Trump, Haley faces the same trick as all opponents facing Trump: earning the label of being anti-Trump but risking alienating a segment of the primary voters needed to win the nomination.
“Whether they like it or not, Republican voters don’t want to hear how bad Donald Trump is. They’ve been hearing it for eight years from Democrats and the media,” said New Hampshire Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “There’s nothing you can say to a Trump voter that will surprise them.”
Bartlett said Haley would be better off defending her record, working to appeal to non-college-educated voters and leaning into her message of electability, a common theme in her speeches. At public events, Haley holds a Wall Street Journal survey that found He would defeat Biden in a general election by 17 points, characterizing that victory as a mandate that could boost Republicans in the elections.
But failing to show he can take on Trump could also carry its own risk, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie warned. Christie criticized Haley last week at an event in New Hampshire for not repudiating Trump and for failing to follow through on her promise to pardon him.
“This is the kind of complacency you should not be willing to tolerate,” Christie said before leaving the race. “She just says that because she thinks it will make some voters who liked Trump somehow feel more comfortable with her. That’s not what we’re looking for. “That’s not what we should be defending.”
If Trump’s attack does, in fact, turn especially nasty, Haley has shown she can step up, her allies say, pointing to a contentious 2010 primary for South Carolina governor.
“I’ve always thought Nikki is at her best when she fights back, when she responds to attacks, when she stands her ground,” said South Carolina state Sen. Tom Davis, a Republican who has known Haley for 20 years.
In the past, personal attacks on Haley have backfired, strategists said.
“When people attack you and your family with politically motivated lies and you address them directly and authentically, and don’t hide from the questions – all aspects of how Nikki has handled the attacks – people can relate to that,” said Rob Godfrey, a communications strategist who worked on a rival campaign during South Carolina’s gubernatorial primary in 2010 and for Haley after she won the nomination.
“They appreciate the transparency and seeing you report it, but also the vulnerability you show in protecting your loved ones, and it becomes something that endears you to voters,” he added. “They feel like they can trust you even more.”