CONCORD, N.H. — Richard Anderson drove through a snowstorm last week to see his preferred candidate in the New Hampshire Republican primary. But he’s not sure how far he’ll go to support her if he wins the nomination.
Anderson, a 73-year-old independent voter from Jackson, liked what he heard from Nikki Haley at the Mount Washington Hotel. But he does not agree with the former UN ambassador’s plan to pardon former President Donald Trump if he is found guilty of any of the crimes he is accused of.
“That bothers me,” he said. “I will still vote for her in the primary, but I will wait to see if she keeps saying the same thing in the general election.”
Haley’s best chance to shake off Trump’s hold on the Republican nomination lies in her ability to appeal to New Hampshire’s independent voters — including some who may not stick with her in November — without alienating too many conservatives. Other Republicans have struck the right balance in this regard, notably John McCain with two GOP primary victories. But those victories came long before Trump’s rise in politics and Republicans’ rightward shifts both in the state and nationally.
“It’s a very difficult needle to thread,” said Nathan Shrader, an associate professor of politics at New England College, “because if she plays too open a game to independent voters, that could turn off some Republicans.” who we know are more conservative in the Trump era than they might have been a generation ago.”
Democrats cannot vote in the Republican Party primaries, but unaffiliated voters, who make up nearly 40% of registered voters in New Hampshire, can. That makes them a key target, although they are not a monolith.
A CNN-University of New Hampshire poll released Sunday found that a majority of registered Republicans who were likely to vote in the primary (67%) said they planned to vote for Trump. But the majority of those registered as undeclared (58%) said they support Haley.
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, also found that more registered Republicans in the state view Haley unfavorably (47%) than favorably (31%). Meanwhile, Trump is viewed favorably by 76% of registered Republicans and unfavorably by just 16%.
Haley was viewed favorably by 42% of people who registered as unreported, while 32% viewed her unfavorably. By contrast, only 34% of the same group view Trump favorably, compared to 59% unfavorably.
Some Haley supporters interviewed at her events are left-wing voters who have little ideological overlap with Haley but are intent on stopping Trump. Others lean Republican and agree with her policies.
Corinne Pullen is a mix of both. Pullen, a 68-year-old retired nurse from Canterbury, said she is impressed with Haley’s “tough and strong” foreign policies and her plans to reduce federal spending. She considers Trump a “narcissistic boastful buffoon.”
“When I compare these two candidates, there is no need to think about who I would feel comfortable and confident in if I were in the White House,” she said.
Trump has turned that crossover appeal into a line of attack, suggesting that Haley is being propped up by “radical left-wing Democrats.” The former president’s campaign argues that Haley will struggle with conservatives in close primaries like the one in her home state of South Carolina, where the Feb. 24 primary is the next big showdown between her and Trump.
“His whole focus right now … has been on getting Democrats and behavioral Democrats to take over the Republican primary in New Hampshire,” Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita told reporters this month.
As if to underscore that point, Trump on Saturday arranged for South Carolina’s current governor, lieutenant governor and several other elected leaders to come to New Hampshire to campaign with him. The day before, she got a big endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, whom Haley appointed to the Senate when she was governor.
Haley, however, ruled out that measure.
“I won South Carolina twice as governor,” she said recently. “I think I know what favorable territory South Carolina is. Let’s go to South Carolina. We will be strong in South Carolina.” And she added: “The road will never stop here in New Hampshire, that has always been the plan.”
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, is skeptical that Haley can form a coalition strong and diverse enough to overtake Trump in Tuesday’s primary. Even if he did, “how can that be duplicated elsewhere?” he asked. “The answer is that it is not like that. “I don’t think you can perform that magic trick in state after state.”
Unlike McCain, who openly appealed to “Republicans, independents, Democrats, libertarians, vegetarians, all of them,” Haley does not mention independents in her speech. But the super PAC backing her is filling their mailboxes with fliers citing her endorsement of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Trump critic, and her plans on the economy and debt reduction.
Haley described herself to reporters Thursday as “a conservative who knows how to talk to moderates and independents and not make them feel bad, but make them feel included.”
At the same time, she rejected criticism from Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis that she is not conservative enough.
“Show me where I’m moderate, because I’m not,” she said.
That didn’t stop Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a moderate Republican who voted for Biden in 2020, from endorsing her on Saturday and urging New Hampshire voters to “show their deep-rooted independent streak.” And she doesn’t upset independent voter Kristen Mansharamani, who described herself as “more left-wing” than Haley when it comes to abortion, education and other issues, but she said she believes Haley would be a unifying leader.
“I told my 12-year-old son that I’m looking for the person who I think is going to eliminate some of the gridlock and polarization in politics and I think she can do it better than anyone else right now. ” said Mansharamani, 48, of Lincoln.
In Iowa, Haley was the front-runner among the most anti-Trump Republicans, including those who said the former president did something illegal in one of the pending criminal cases against him, according to data from AP VoteCast, a broad survey of likely voters. of Iowa before entering the caucuses. Two-thirds of Haley’s caucusgoers said they ultimately would not vote for Trump in the general election.
In New Hampshire, some anti-Trump independents who support Haley say they also aren’t sure if they would back her in a general election.
Amy Watson, a 59-year-old oral surgeon from Hollis, praised Haley’s tenure as U.N. ambassador and governor, but said Haley’s views on environmental issues could be a deciding factor in November.
“As things happen, I think I’ll consider what she has to say,” he said. “I’m very concerned about global warming, so that’s an area where she may lose me.”
___
AP Public Opinion Research Director Emily Swanson in Washington, Associated Press writers Jill Colvin and Joseph Frederick in New Hampshire, and Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed to this report.