While House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy has struggled to hold the vote to become speaker, his deputy has bowed his head.
Rep. Steve Scalise, the No. 2 in the House GOP leadership, has made it clear he supports McCarthy, and GOP sources say he has rejected pleas from hardliners to challenge the California Republican — all while he takes steps to avoid being seen as plotting McCarthy’s downfall.
But what’s less clear is what Scalise will do if the race drags on Tuesday and Tuesday goes to multiple ballots — and whether the Louisiana Republican will try to force his way into the speaker’s office if the stalemate continues. If McCarthy drops out of the race, Scalise is widely expected to run for the job, though sources close to the GOP leader say he plans to stay in the race for as long as it takes to get the votes.
Yet another complicating factor: It’s far from clear whether Scalise herself could get the 218 votes to win the speakership, underscoring prospects that Tuesday could culminate in a long and drawn-out floor fight the chamber hasn’t seen in 100 years and one that could undermine the Republicans’ ability to govern once they take power in the 118th Congress.
“Steve tries to be very supportive,” said Rep. Don Bacon, a McCarthy supporter and Nebraska Republican. “He has made it public that he supports McCarthy. I think he wants to be a speaker one day, so he has to be tactful.”
Others privately berate Scalise for not being more forceful in his support of McCarthy or insisting that he stay with the California Republican no matter how long it takes. And some Republican members say Scalise will only hurt if he tries to become a speaker now.
McCarthy, left, has the support of Representative Steve Scalise, right. GOP sources say Scalise has rejected pleas from hardliners to challenge the California Republican — all while taking steps to avoid being seen as conspirators to McCarthy’s downfall. (J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press)
“I think Steve Scalise is going to have some trouble,” a GOP member told CNN Monday, adding, “If Kevin McCarthy doesn’t become a speaker, Steve Scalise will have faint fingerprints on the dagger.”
In a short interview last month, Scalise said he wouldn’t talk about speculation about what he might do if McCarthy doesn’t get the votes to become speaker.
“Obviously, our focus is on resolving the issue by January 3,” he told CNN. “And there are a lot of conversations that everyone has had, Kevin certainly, with the members who have expressed their concerns.”
Sources close to Scalise insist the Louisiana Republican has taken no steps to run for speaker and is in no way trying to harm McCarthy’s bid.
According to Republican lawmakers, other dark horse candidates could emerge if McCarthy drops out. Among the names put forward: North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, a McCarthy ally who is about to chair a top committee next year; Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, co-founder of the far-right House Freedom Caucus; and Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, an experienced legislator who would be viewed as more of a temporary caretaker for the job. However, none of those lawmakers have shown any interest in the job, and they would almost certainly face the same dilemma as McCarthy: preventing more than four Republicans from defecting in an attempt to win the gavel.
Still, Scalise is seen as the most likely alternative if McCarthy falters.
A senior GOP source says Scalise cannot be seen by his peers as taking steps to run for the position of power, knowing that it could hurt his ability to get the votes if McCarthy ultimately falters. Still, the same source predicted that Scalise would have an easier time winning over the right wing of the conference, as he is seen as more ideological than McCarthy.
But Scalise has also drawn some skepticism from the more moderate wing of the conference, including many who plan to stay with McCarthy, praising him and his fundraising prowess for bringing them back into the majority for the first time in five years. has brought.
In a private House GOP call on Sunday, Scalise embraced his role as the incoming majority leader by crafting the agenda and bills that would be discussed this week — and even referred to McCarthy as the future speaker, according to a source on the telephone conversation.
Behind the scenes, however, Scalise has been approached by some members who suggest he remains willing to run the conference if McCarthy drops out.
However, some do not want to give in to the far-right by supporting a separate candidate for speaker, even though they may like Scalise.
“There is no reason not to vote for Steve. It’s not about whether Steve is better than Kevin. It’s about how you’re going to run the 118th Congress if you give the gavel to Scalise and give these guys a win? complained one Republican member. “Steve Scalise won’t have more fun than Kevin McCarthy.”
McCarthy has already made many concessions to weaken the power of the speaker and empower the common man through a set of rules that would change the way the House works — a move to accommodate the hardliners who have demanded more say in the new Congress. In a major concession, he has agreed to significantly lower the threshold to now allow a bloc of just five members to vote for the impeachment of an incumbent speaker.
But some hardliners are not pleased and are pushing to lower the threshold to just one member who can call for such a vote — something other House Republicans fear would be a recipe for chaos and have sworn they wouldn’t. supports.
“It will come to a head tomorrow,” a GOP source with knowledge of the talks said on Monday, adding, “All roads lead back to Kevin.”
But the concession packages negotiated by McCarthy – which are incorporated into a rule proposal to be passed by the full house after the speaker’s vote – could well reach the 218 votes needed for approval if another candidate is nominated. speaker. Some say they would only vote for such a deal if McCarthy is the next speaker. If another candidate shows up, they say, those concessions will not be accepted.
“I think people will resist rule and operational changes more if it becomes clear that KMC is not going to get their votes anyway,” said another GOP member, referring to McCarthy.
Still, the GOP’s hardliners say the next candidate must agree to the same set of demands.
Asked if Scalise should agree to the same concessions as McCarthy, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz to CNN: “Of course. The McCarthy concessions are a basis for everyone.”
If McCarthy can’t win 218 votes, the hardliners have suggested a new candidate emerge, but have steadfastly refused to name the person — something that infuriates many McCarthy allies in the conference.
Rep. Bob Good, a Virginia Republican and “hard no” to McCarthy, told CNN Monday that there are 10-15 Republicans he expects to vote against the GOP leader on Tuesday. He said that even if McCarthy gave in to the demands they made to make it easier to oust an incumbent speaker, he said that would not be enough to win. He said McCarthy is in a “desperate place” to become a speaker and suggested his word should not be trusted as he makes promises in the eleventh hour.
“We shouldn’t be in a rush to make a bad decision,” Good said, promising a new candidate would emerge on Tuesday. He declined to specify the member and also declined to comment on Scalise.
“I’m going to resist for a few more hours what I’ve resisted for a few weeks, which is to comment on specific candidates,” Good said. “Kevin McCarthy is part of the problem.”
‘Chaos Agents’: Tensions rise during the conference
The attitude has infuriated many McCarthy allies.
Rep. Dusty Johnson, a South Dakota Republican, said he found it “incredible” that the same members who are pushing for a more “open and transparent” GOP conference are going to stand behind a “shadow candidate” they want to put Republicans “in a ambush”. the start of the new congress.
“I think members are becoming more and more frustrated with the intransigence of some of the holdouts,” Johnson told CNN, calling some of them “mayhem agents trying to cause trouble.”
The assessment is even more blunt in private.
“People shouldn’t believe this is a noble cause,” said one GOP legislator. “No one should believe that this is anything but self-aggrandizement. They are trying to push through procedures that no one outside of Washington cares about, just to give themselves more power.”
“If they demanded a policy change it would be one thing, but they are not doing that,” said the source. “They demand notoriety.”
Representative Andy Biggs of Arizona challenges McCarthy for House speakership. His candidacy almost guarantees that he will siphon off enough GOP votes to deny the California Republican a House majority. (J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press)
It remains to be seen how Tuesday will go. McCarthy already has one GOP challenger in the race – Conservative Representative Andy Biggs of Arizona — whose candidacy almost guarantees he will siphon off enough GOP votes to deny the California Republican a House majority.
The House could go into recess to allow Republicans to meet in private, but it would take 218 votes to cause a lull in floor action on Tuesday. Or the House could keep voting until someone reaches 218 — a scenario not seen since 1923, when Frederick Gillet won the speakership on the ninth ballot. A source familiar with the matter said the chamber has no plans to adjourn and will continue to vote until McCarthy wins 218 votes.
To avoid a day of chaos, McCarthy continued to make calls in the speaker’s office on Monday, where he hopes to officially move in on Tuesday.
Senator-elect Markwayne Mullin, an Oklahoma Republican and outgoing member of the House of Representatives, met with McCarthy in his office Monday. Mullin, who has helped lobby House members to support McCarthy, said he and others encouraged McCarthy with a simple message: “Sit down.”
When asked about Scalise, Mullin told CNN, “I don’t think Scalise can make it to 218.”