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The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) completed a significant part of their operation in Gaza last Friday.
An armored push through the middle of Gaza has reached the sea. This has the effect of isolating northern Gaza from the rest of the territory. But it also heralds a new phase in ongoing Israeli military action, Operation Iron Swords.
The Israeli army now occupies much of central Gaza and appears set to stay there for some time. Open source intelligence indicates that Israel quickly built a series of strongpoints across the Gaza trunk. These strongpoints, built by armored bulldozers, will form a cordon that will have several objectives in the next phase of the Israeli operation in Gaza.
The Israeli army now occupies much of central Gaza and appears set to stay there for some time.(Israel Defense Forces via Reuters)
One of the reasons for isolating northern Gaza is to ensure that Hamas is cut off from external sources of support. The cordon will prevent support from southern Gaza from moving north to Hamas terrorists. But it will also allow civilians to escape the fighting in the north, while preventing Hamas from fleeing to the south.
While Israeli forces maintain this southern cordon, a large ground force is advancing on two main axes – from the north and the northeast – towards Gaza City.
The goal is to continue to crush Hamas, forcing it into a smaller and smaller area where it can be detected and destroyed. The Israeli military will also seek to find Hamas infrastructure in northern Gaza, including confirming the location of the vast underground network used to move fighters and store weapons. At the same time, the IDF will desperately search for hostages who may be held in northern Gaza.
These operations will involve armored ground forces, manned and unmanned aircraft as well as electronic reconnaissance and human intelligence operations.
The Israeli army sent ground forces to Gaza. ((Israel Defense Forces via AP)
Deaths of civilians and hostages could be difficult to avoid
The mission to destroy Hamas and that of recovering the hostages will, however, be difficult to reconcile. Given the scale of destruction caused by the engagement and assassination of Hamas fighters, it is difficult to avoid civilian casualties or the potential death of hostages.
Israeli operations in Gaza will likely take some time – perhaps weeks or months. The intensity of the fighting will increase and the number of casualties among IDF soldiers, Hamas militants and civilians will likely increase.
Meanwhile, Israel will have to balance its military missions, avoiding civilian casualties, recovering hostages and keeping an eye on the inevitable strategic clock ticking.
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Can Hamas be destroyed?
An important question for the Gaza operation is whether it is actually possible to destroy Hamas.
It is certain that the IDF’s operations will deal a mortal blow to Hamas, killing many of its supporters and destroying its infrastructure. But as with all wars, it takes more than military operations to achieve stable, long-term political solutions. Military operations can only succeed if they are carried out in support of political objectives.
To “destroy” Hamas, it will be necessary to cut off the support it receives from organizations such as Hezbollah and Iran. But it will also require long-term political and social solutions that eliminate the reasons why young men in Gaza feel the need to join organizations like Hamas.
The objectives and ideas of Hamas should no longer be relevant to the population of Gaza.
If these problems are not resolved, current Israeli operations risk becoming just a more violent form of “mow the lawn” strategy for Gaza which preceded October 7.
Current Israeli operations risk being just a more violent form of Israel’s current strategy towards Gaza.(AP Photo: Felipe Dana)
After Gaza, what happens next?
A final question is: after northern Gaza, what’s next?
The Israeli government has several options. It could withdraw its forces and continue a lower-intensity operation aimed at destroying Hamas infrastructure and tracking down those who participated in the October 7 atrocities. Alternatively, it could use northern Gaza as a starting point for an advance towards southern Gaza.
But the Israeli government will understand that, despite its desire to destroy Hamas throughout Gaza, its allies have only limited strategic stamina to support this. The US government, despite its support for Israel, has expressed dissatisfaction with the number of civilian casualties over the past two weeks.
After nine days of Israeli operations in Gaza in 2021, US President Biden informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he was “off track” and a ceasefire was declared two days later. Even though the Israelis have greater latitude this time due to the scale of the October attacks, the strategic clock continues to tick.
This is why Israel has prioritized northern Gaza and will reassess whether it has the strategic flexibility to continue its operations once it ends.
Either way, there’s plenty of brutal and bloody fighting on the ground – and underground – in the weeks to come. Losses on all sides will increase. And the fierce information war raging around the world will continue to pressure Israel to moderate the violence.
But given Netanyahu’s determination to carry out this operation in Gaza, a reduction in violence is unlikely in the very near future.
Mick Ryan is a retired Australian Army strategist and major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is also a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington.