New research shows that lethal heat waves might jeopardize India’s strides towards reducing poverty and inequality.

Record-breaking heatwaves in April 2022 increased the risk of 90% of people in India going hungry, losing income or dying prematurely, according to our report. New study.

After 2022 is ranked as the hottest year in the world 122 years oldExtreme heat appeared early this year with more 60% from India Recording above-normal temperatures for the month of April, according to the country’s Meteorological Department. El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon that can increase global temperatures, is also expected this year.

The increasing frequency of deadly heatwaves could halt or even reverse India’s progress in reducing poverty, food security, income and gender equality, hurting the quality of life for more than 1.4 billion Indians.

As a natural phenomenon, extreme heat is expected to occur once every 30 years or so in the Indian subcontinent. This is no longer the case thanks to man-made climate change. India has suffered the most 24,000 Heatwave-related deaths since 1992 alone, and the May 1998 heat wave was one of the most devastating as it claimed more than 3,058 lives.

During heatwaves in May 2010, temperatures in the western city of Ahmedabad reached 47.8°C, and increased hospitalizations of newborn babies due to heat. 43%which prompted the city to become one of the first countries to implement a global warming action plan aimed at guiding preparations and emergency response to the heatwaves that have since begun. Saved thousands of lives. The 2015 heat wave killed more than 2,330 people and prompted the government’s Ministry of Disaster Management to set guidelines to prevent deaths during heat waves and Indian states to develop their own plans.

Failure to implement these strategies may hinder India’s economic progress. If proper heat action plans are not developed, excess heat could cost India 2.8% and 8.7% of its GDP. 2050 And 2100, respectively. This is a worrying trend, especially given India’s goal of becoming $10 trillion economy by 2030.

“real feel” scale

Heat action plans are only useful if they can represent the consequences of heat waves for the entire population. For Indian authorities to realize that deadly heat is present (and emergency measures are needed), the government needs to know how conditions feel to the public.

We used an environmental health metric popular in the United States called the heat index to determine how hot the human body is likely to feel in relation to air temperature and humidity levels. This helped us determine the sensitivity of people to heatwaves across India and discover that 90% of the country was at risk of severe fallout during last year’s heatwave.

It is important that we accurately gauge the vulnerability of India to deadly temperatures. The measure used by the Indian government, known as the Climate Vulnerability Index, does not take into account the physical dangers of heat to human health. Our research has shown that the combination of air temperature and relative humidity levels gives our heat index a “true” measure of extreme heat. In other words, how intense heat felt to the people suffering from it.

Stop underestimating heat waves

Minimizing the effects of extreme heat in India could reduce or even reverse its progress on a set of sustainable development goals. They include those related to poverty and hunger, health and well-being, equality, economic growth, industrial innovation and biodiversity. This is particularly worrisome given that India’s progress towards these targets has slowed over the past 20 years while the number of extreme weather events has increased.

For example, extreme heat can exacerbate drought by drying out the soil and disrupting rainfall patterns, ultimately damaging crop production and food security, endangering the health and well-being of a large portion of Indian society. Being primarily an agricultural economy, productivity losses in this sector threaten the jobs and health of millions of marginal farmers and small-scale farmers, as well as their ability to adapt and benefit from new livelihoods. Another worrying trend with heat waves is increasing Diseases transmitted by water and insectswhich could further strain India’s already beleaguered public health system.

Every year, millions of people migrate from rural areas to the cities of India in search of a better quality of life. But heat waves are having a disastrous effect on the country’s urban population as well. Practically the entire city of Delhi and its 32 million inhabitants are threatened by the heatwaves of 2022. Most of the migrants are forced to settle in the poorest neighborhoods of the city, where the effects of the heatwaves are particularly catastrophic. Unfortunately, these communities also lack the means to purchase air conditioners that might alleviate their misery.

The current measures to assess India’s sensitivity to climate change will not help people to withstand the exceptional heat seen in recent years and should be upgraded immediately.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates Heatwaves in South Asia will only get stronger and more frequent this century. Heat action plans will be crucial in accelerating efforts to mitigate and adapt to impacts, but they must represent the complexity of India’s vulnerabilities to climate change. The focus on making Indian cities resistant to extreme heat is crucial, as you will see cities population explosion In the next ten years, with 70% of the Indian construction stock It has not been created yet. There is an opportunity to incorporate ways of coping with extreme heat by designing new homes that are easier to keep cool.

With many people in India expected to experience extreme heat events in the future, finance, urban design and education are essential to help people adapt.

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