Howdy readers. I’m Phil Rosen, writing to you from New York City.
The Oval Office is no stranger to high drama, but Tuesday’s meeting held particular gravity — President Joe Biden met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to hash out debt-ceiling particulars.
As expected, the rendezvous produced nothing definitive as far as conclusions.
In any case, one outcome that many hold with a high degree of certainty is that financial markets are going to feel pain if the “x-date” bell tolls.
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1. This $31 trillion debt ceiling argument “comes at the worst possible time,” according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Political leaders remain deadlocked on how to move the needle and avert a national default, but the ordeal’s transpiring as a critical stretch as the economy unfolds.
“We’re trying to figure out what is a very strange business cycle coming out of the pandemic, weighing off against the tightening that’s coming from these bank failures and uncertainty,” the central banker told Yahoo Finance this week.
“And to add on to it this uncertainty about whether the government is going to pay its bills,” he continued, “it just makes it extremely difficult to figure out what will be the conditions for economic growth in the job market.”
Remember, the US debt limit has seen 78 changes over the last six decades.
Bank of America’s wealth management team said this time is likely no different, and they expect policymakers to reach a solution on time.
“Many past instances of debt limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout,” the strategists wrote in a recent note.
And billionaire bond king Bill Gross agreed — he thinks investors should load up on Treasury bills to lock in juicy yields now while the drama is in full swing and before prices rally on a deal.
One-month Treasury yields have spiked over the last two weeks, and Gross said he’s betting on these assets to keep delivering more attractive returns than longer-dated notes.
Still, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has cautioned that the government could run out of money as soon as June 1 — that’s 22 days away — and an economic crisis would follow shortly after.
A Reuters report Tuesday said Yellen has been personally calling up CEOs and business leaders to warn them of the “catastrophic” impact that could be looming.
She’s repeatedly urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling, and has maintained that failing to do so could cost millions of jobs and damage the global economy.
What do you think is the most likely outcome for the debt-ceiling crisis? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
Andrew Kelly/Reuters
2. US stock futures fall early Wednesday, as investors await April’s consumer price index for an indication about whether the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are working. Check out the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck: Walt Disney, Toyota, Dominion Energy, all reporting.
4. A chief economist who called the 2008 housing crisis said home prices could tumble another 15%. Declining mortgage rates and a recession will create a supply and demand imbalance — and a credit crunch could further weigh on the market.
5. Berkshire Hathaway just cut its stake in EV maker BYD. The filing comes days after investing legends Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said they don’t want to compete against Elon Musk: “We don’t want that much failure.”
6. The US dollar isn’t going to lose its throne as the king of currencies anytime soon. That’s according to LPL chief global strategist Quincy Krosby — she says it boils down to these three reasons.
7. With recession risks climbing, Bank of America analysts slashed their 2023 outlook for oil prices. Barrel costs are rushing to anticipate disinflation and a downturn, in their view. See what else the firm’s commodities team is watching.
8. Two housing experts broke down why they expect a downturn that could last several years. Housing guru Ivy Zelman and investor Scott Trench shared what parts of the US they expect home and apartment prices to drop most and why. Plus, they explained their predictions on what the trend means for buyers.
9. UBS listed out its top five takeaways for investors from Berkshire Hathaway’s famed shareholder weekend. At what the firm called the “best annual meeting in years,” Buffett shot down a potential purchase and elaborated on plans for his successor.
Markets Insider
10. Palantir stock rallied double-digits Tuesday after the software firm reported stellar earnings. Its AI strategy is to “just to take the whole market,” according to CEO Alex Karp. The company added that demand for its AI tool is “without precedent.”
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.