From left, Reps. Katie Porter, Adam Schiff, and Barbara Lee of California, who are running in the state’s 2024 US Senate race, participate in the National Union of Healthcare Workers Candidate Forum in Los Angeles on October 8, 2023.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
With Sen. Laphonza Butler not running for a full term, the California race remains wide open.Rep. Adam Schiff of Burbank raised nearly $6 million in Q3, and has $32 million cash on hand. Former MLB All-Star Steve Garvey, a Republican, jumped into the Senate race earlier this month.
Last Thursday, Sen. Laphonza Butler of California announced that she wouldn’t run for a full term in 2024 after her appointment to the seat by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom earlier this month.
Butler, a former regent of the University of California and until recently the president of EMILY’s List, was tapped by Newsom to fill the remainder of the term of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein — the trailblazing lawmaker who died in September after serving in the upper chamber for nearly 31 years.
There has been much fanfare regarding Butler’s appointment, as she is the first Black woman and openly LGBTQ+ person to represent California in the Senate. But she opted against a campaign, giving Democrats in the state a sense of clarity as the race heats up.
Butler’s decision puts a renewed focus on Democratic Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, and Adam Schiff, who have been in the race for months — along with the recently-launched candidacy of Republican Steve Garvey, a former baseball All-Star who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
What’s the state of the race ahead of the March 2024 primary?
The Top-Two Factor
Lee, Porter, and Schiff remain the leading Democrats in the race, with several other Democratic candidates also in the running. However, the three sitting members of Congress are the only Democratic contenders with the sort of name recognition necessary to emerge victorious in a state like California, with its many media markets.
Sen. Laphonza Butler, center, will not run for a full Senate term in 2024. Alex Padilla, California’s senior US senator, is seen at the left.
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In March, the Senate contenders — regardless of party affiliation — will compete in a primary to determine who will face off in November. There will be two Senate races on the November 2024 ballot: a special election to fill the Senate term through January 2025 and a general election for the full Senate term ending in January 2031.
Given the Democratic lean of the state, there’s a strong chance of a Senate race between two Democrats. Still, with three big-name members of the party splitting the vote, it could provide an avenue for Garvey or another Republican to secure one of the two slots on the November ballot.
In a Public Policy Institute of California poll released last month, Schiff had the support of 20% of likely voters, while 15% were behind Porter and 8% supported Lee. Republicans James P. Bradley and Eric Early each attracted 5% support. The poll did not include Garvey.
Former MLB All-Star Steve Garvey is running in California’s US Senate race as a Republican.
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A general election win by Porter, Schiff, or Garvey would represent a significant geographical shift in the state’s political power, as all three candidates are based in Southern California. Lee is the sole officeholder in the race from the San Francisco Bay Area, which has long reigned supreme in the Golden State’s political pecking order.
The Money Race
In the third quarter of 2023, Schiff raked in nearly $6 million, according to the latest FEC filings. The Burbank congressman — who cultivated a national profile as a onetime chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and a frequent political target of former President Donald Trump — has consistently been the strongest fundraiser in the California Senate race thus far, ending the third quarter with $32 million cash on hand.
Porter, an Irvine congresswoman, raised roughly $3.4 million in the third quarter and has nearly $12 million cash on hand, per FEC filings.
Lee, who has represented her Oakland-based congressional district since 1998 and is known for her progressive views, raised $1 million in the third quarter. The congresswoman has over $3.2 million cash on hand, according to FEC filings.
Garvey entered the race earlier this month and has not yet filed any financial disclosures for his campaign.