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Mortgage rates have ticked up a bit this week, but they’re still down significantly compared to last month. Average 30-year mortgage rates are currently around 40 basis points below their October peak.
Rates have eased this month in response to data showing that the economy is finally cooling off. This includes October’s jobs report, which showed that job growth slowed quite a bit last month.
Cooler economic data is good news for mortgage rates, because it means that the once-overheated economy is normalizing. Over the past couple of years, sky-high inflation has helped push up mortgage rates, and as inflation decelerates, mortgage rates should come down further.
If you’ve been hoping to buy a home sometime soon but are waiting for lower rates, you may finally get an opportunity to do so in 2024.
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By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2023
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022.
But many forecasts expect rates to begin to fall this year. In their latest forecast, Fannie Mae researchers predicted that 30-year fixed rates will trend down throughout 2023 and 2024.
But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.7%. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked a year ago, but we still need to see a bit more slowing before the Fed will consider cutting rates.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
Home prices declined a bit on a monthly basis late last year, but we aren’t likely to see drops this year.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 6.7% overall in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 1.5% increase in 2023 and a 1.1% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates may start to drop soon, which would remove some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely keep prices from dropping too far.
What Happens to House Prices in a Recession?
House prices usually drop during a recession, but not always. When it does happen, it’s generally because fewer people can afford to purchase homes, and the low demand forces sellers to lower their prices.
How Much Mortgage Can I Afford?
A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much you can afford to borrow. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.
Typically, experts recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn’t exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
The lower your rate, the more you’ll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.