What is COP28? Here’s what to expect from this year’s UN climate talks

It says a lot about a topic when it has its own shorthand, a widely recognized abbreviation even if its genesis or meaning is not.

Such is the case of what is widely known as COP.

In total, there have been 27 COP meetings since the first one was held in Munich, Germany, in 1995.

Since Thursday, November 30, the latest COP meeting has been held in Dubai, a gleaming steel and glass metropolis located in the United Arab Emirates, on the edge of the Arabian Peninsula.

Every year, the gatherings seem to get bigger, often with headlines to match.

Dubai, a towering monument to fossil fuels, is hosting this year’s climate talks.(AP: Kamran Jebreili)

But what is the COP, why is it in its 28th year and why should ordinary punters on the other side of the world in Australia care?

The acronym stands for conference of the parties and is essentially an annual meeting where member states of the United Nations meet to discuss progress in the fight against global warming.

Perhaps most importantly, it is also where those member states try to debate what is not happening and what more needs to be done.

This year will be no different.

Here are five quick things to keep in mind as events unfold in the United Arab Emirates.

A tripling of renewable energies

While the opportunities for disagreement between States at COP28 are virtually limitless, there are some areas of common ground.

Chief among them is the call for a 200 percent increase in global renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade.

There are currently around 3,400 gigawatts of green energy capacity worldwide, about 50 times the size of Australia’s largest electricity system.

From a relatively slow start, the amount of renewable energy capacity being added each year has been picking up pace and is on track to reach around 500 gigawatts a year, according to the UN.

The UN is pushing to triple renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade.(ABC News: Daniel Mercer)

But the same organization is pushing for a much faster pace of 1,500 gigawatts a year to ensure total capacity reaches 11,000 gigawatts of green energy by 2030.

For context, the total generating capacity of the US electric system is currently 1,300 gigawatts.

While this additional capacity will come from a variety of sources, including wind and hydropower, the bulk of it will undoubtedly come from solar energy.

Solar energy is rapidly emerging as the dominant form of renewable energy, with generation costs that have been described as the lowest in history.

What’s more, the world’s capacity to produce new solar panels is enormous.

Global energy forecaster Rystad recently noted that an extraordinary 1,200 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity was currently under construction.

Double energy efficiency

Building new things is often easier to understand and sell if you are a politician or businessman than using less energy or using it more efficiently.

But, as with other precious goods like water, the truth is that the cheapest electron for an energy system is the one that does not need to be supplied in the first place.

The most obvious example of this is an appliance.

Today, typical appliances, such as a refrigerator, dishwasher or dryer, consume much less energy than the same appliance did 20 years ago.

The research showed that the world would have used 13 percent more energy in 2020 compared to two decades earlier. no efficiency improvements.

The researchers found that carbon emissions related to that energy use would have been 14 percent higher.

This year’s talks will include for the first time an assessment of global emissions.(AAP: Green Peace)

Therefore, another of the key objectives shared at COP28 will be to double energy efficiency worldwide in the next seven years.

Changes in the way we get around and the move to electric vehicles are expected to do much of the heavy lifting.

But so are improvements to the buildings we live and work in (think measures like insulation) along with the appliances they contain.

Finally, restructuring the way the industry operates is expected to generate most, if not all, of the remaining energy savings in the future.

The loss and damage fund

At U.N. climate talks last year in Egypt, one of the biggest developments was an agreement between the countries for a so-called loss and damage fund.

The fund apparently aims to help poorer and developing countries deal with the effects of a warmer climate and more extreme weather.

Its establishment was also a recognition that richer countries, in general, have been responsible for the majority of greenhouse gases emitted since the industrial revolution.

Small island states like Kiribati are highly exposed to the effects of global warming.(Supplied: Kurt Johnson)

But the arguments in favor of the fund and who should benefit from it go as far as the deal went.

Fletting out the details of the plan has been complicated, particularly who should contribute, how much should pay and who should be allowed to claim the money.

Even the question of who should be in charge has been the subject of acrimony: richer countries led by the United States pushed for the creation of the Western-founded World Bank, and others, such as China, resisted the call.

In a sign of Australia’s position on the issue, Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said rising countries like China and India should help compensate for poorer nations exposed to climate change.

“Just because a country wasn’t rich or a big emitter in 1992 doesn’t mean it will still be the same 30 years later,” Bowen said.

The global balance

It was at a COP meeting in Paris in 2015 that an agreement was reached that has become the guiding light in efforts to address global warming.

Under that deal, countries agreed to try to limit temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2030, or at least “well below” 2 degrees.

As part of that agreement, parties to the U.N. talks in Dubai are expected to sign a document showing how the world is doing in those efforts.

This “global assessment” will also involve countries agreeing how those emissions should be controlled.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen will be Australia’s top leader at COP28.(ABC News: Ed Reading)

In November, the UN warned that progress towards the 1.5 degree target so far was not good.

If anything, the organization said countries, collectively, were way off course, with emissions forecast to soar well above required levels and temperatures on track to rise by as much as 2.9°C.

The UN said there was evidence of a growing disconnect between countries’ current plans and policies and their pledges to carbon neutrality, a goal set for 2050 by many wealthier nations.

Climate action advocates are likely to use the results of the global stocktake to lobby for more ambitious measures at this year’s conference of the parties.

Fossil fuels and a colorful crowd

Hand in hand with the divergence between countries’ actions and their words on the climate is the current global dependence on fossil fuels.

To this day, the global economy obtains about 80 percent of its energy from a combination of coal, oil and gas.

And while the use of coal for electricity is declining rapidly in many of the world’s rich countries, including Australia, it is a different story in large developing nations such as China and India.

When it comes to oil and gas, the evidence points to growing demand, at least for a while.

In this context, the choice of Dubai as the venue for this year’s COP has been considered controversial.

The United Arab Emirates, through its state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), is one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, pumping an average of 3.2 million barrels per day.

Sultan al-Jaber, president of COP28, is also a global oil supremo.(AP: Kamran Jebreili)

Adnoc is led by Sultan al-Jaber, none other than the president of COP28.

Many have highlighted the apparent contradiction between the UAE’s interest in selling fossil fuels and hosting a meeting aimed at ending their use.

Despite this, the UAE has also staunchly supported the twin goals of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, both of which are considered hugely ambitious.

Energy modeler Rystad also predicts that primary energy, which now largely comes from fossil fuels, will peak in 2030 and then begin to fall as “cleaner, more efficient” renewable capacity comes online.