How did the Patriots’ win over the Steelers change your draft odds?

Patriots

If the Patriots want to draft a potential franchise quarterback like Drake Maye, they’ll likely need a top-two pick.

The Patriots still have a chance to land a top-three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff

The Patriots finally snapped their five-game losing streak Thursday night with an upset victory over the Steelers.

It was a much-needed response for a Patriots team that has been stuck near the bottom of the AFC for most of the 2023 season.

But for some Patriots fans, Thursday’s road victory could have been a Pyrrhic victory, especially for those who have kept their eyes glued to everything related to the 2024 NFL Draft.

If the Patriots (3-10) want to reassert themselves as one of the AFC’s top powers in the coming years, landing a prized QB prospect like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye could accelerate those plans in record time.

But for New England to land one of Williams or Maye, it will likely have to hold steady with at least a top-two pick before the draft.

The Patriots moved past the Cardinals to the projected No. 2 seed after their loss to the Chargers on Sunday, along with Arizona’s win over Pittsburgh earlier in the day.

But will the Patriots’ third win of the season thwart their plans to draft Williams or Maye?

At this point, the odds are not in their favor in terms of landing the No. 1 overall pick, and ESPN’s Seth Walder noted that the Bears (via the Panthers) now have an 86 percent chance of securing that No. 1 overall pick. after New England. win on Thursday.

But even after beating the Steelers for their third win of the season, the Patriots are still expected to hold onto the projected No. 2 pick, at least for this week.

As Tankathon noted, New England still has a slight lead over Arizona, which is in the bye week and therefore cannot improve (or hinder) its record on Sunday.

Although New England and Arizona have the same 3-10 record, the Patriots have an advantage over them due to strength of schedule, and that metric serves as a tiebreaker in determining draft order for teams with identical records.

The team with the weakest schedule will have the highest pick, with New England (.524) holding the edge over the Cardinals (.558). However, the strength of the schedule is dynamic and can change each week, depending on the performances of each team facing this year during the final month of the 2023 season.