NNA – The worldrsquo;s nuclear non-proliferation regime is under greater pressure than at any time since the end of the cold war, as ldquo;importantrdquo; countries were openly debating whether to develop atomic weapons, the head of the UNrsquo;s watchdog has warned. Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Financial Times that tense relations between the US, Russia and China, as well as the conflict in the Middle East were putting unprecedented strains on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty signed in 1968 that aimed to limit the development of the worldrsquo;s atomic arsenal. ldquo;I donrsquo;t think in the 1990s you would hear important countries say, lsquo;well, why donrsquo;t we have nuclear weapons too?rsquo;rdquo; he said. ldquo;These countries are having a public discussion about it, which was not the case before. They are saying it publicly. They are saying it to the press. Heads of state have referred to the possibility of rethinking this whole thing.rdquo; Russiarsquo;s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated the power of having nuclear weapons, but Grossi said there are several other factors contributing to the renewed interest in developing atomic weapons among some countries.nbsp; ldquo;There are all these tensions, this possibility of alliances being weakened and countries having to fend for themselves. This is where the nuclear weapon factor, and attraction, comes back in a very unexpected way,rdquo; he said, while declining to name any specific countries.nbsp; The rising risks of increased proliferation were stemming from ldquo;an environment where there is more intense geopolitical competition between great powersrdquo;, said Nicholas Miller, an assistant professor at Dartmouth College who studies nuclear proliferation. He explained that at such times, great powers tended to loosen their focus on nuclear proliferation ldquo;because they are busy competing with their rivalsrdquo;. But Miller also said there was a ldquo;tendency to always think the non-proliferation treaty regime is on the brink of collapserdquo; and that historically it has proven to be more robust than expected.
He identified Iran as the biggest potential risk. ldquo;There have been a lot of statements from Iranian officials in the last year where they are talking about acquiring, or possibly acquiring, [nuclear weapons],rdquo; he said.nbsp; Since former US president Donald Trump unilaterally abandoned the 2015 nuclear accord Tehran signed with world powers, the Islamic republic has been aggressively expanding its nuclear programme and has been enriching uranium at 60 per cent purity, which is close to weapons grade, for more than three years. It now has sufficient fissile material to produce about three nuclear bombs within weeks if it chose to, experts say, although it would take much longer to weaponise the material.nbsp; Tehran insists its nuclear programme is for peaceful, civilian purposes. But in recent months as the Israel-Hamas war has triggered a wave of regional hostilities, Iranian officials have warned that the republic could change its doctrine if it felt threatened. ldquo;We are not for building nuclear weapons,rdquo; Kamal Kharrazi, a foreign affairs adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told the FT last month, citing a fatwa issued by the supreme leader in 2003 banning the development of the arms. But he said that if Iran faced an existential threat, ldquo;naturally we [would] have to change our doctrinerdquo;. ldquo;Up to now, we have not decided to go further than 60 per cent enrichment,rdquo; he said. ldquo;But we have been trying to expand our experience by using different machines and different set-ups.rdquo;nbsp;nbsp; The IAEA, which continues to have inspectors in the republic, says it has no evidence that Iran is seeking to develop or move towards a weapons programme. Iranrsquo;s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said he wants to improve relations with the west and negotiate an agreement to end its nuclear stand-off. But if Tehran did develop weapons, it could trigger an arms race in the Middle East.nbsp; Last year, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, which has plans to develop a civilian nuclear programme, told Fox News that if Iran developed a bomb, ldquo;we will have to get onerdquo;. President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea has also publicly said a nuclear weapons programme may be necessary to counter the threat from nuclear-armed North Korea, although the country was subsequently reassured by more concrete defence pledges from the US.nbsp; In Brussels, Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European Peoplersquo;s party, has called for Europe to build more deterrence against Russia. ldquo;We all know that when push comes to shove, the nuclear option is the really decisive one,rdquo; he said earlier this year.–agencies
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