The Iraqi political scene has been ablaze for the past 72 hours with the rise of footage attributed to ex-Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, in which he appears to criticize Moqtada al-Sadr, one of the strongest Shia Iraqis. and insult. political figures whose faction won big in the 2021 general parliamentary election.
“The problem is that there is a British project to put Moqtada in control of the Shias and Iraq, then they would kill him and give Iraq to the Sunnis. The problem is not al-Maliki [myself], I can just leave and take refuge in Malek’s house and have 2000 warriors protecting me, no one will be able to come to me. That project exists, but I am fighting it, and it must be fought politically and militarily,” Nuri al-Maliki said of his longtime political rival Moqtada al-Sadr in a leaked recording.
“Iran helped al-Sadr make him a new Nasrallah [Lebanese Hezbollah chief] in Iraq,” he continued in his diatribe against the Shia leader. “Moqtada is a murderer, how many did he kill in Baghdad? The kidnappings, the car bombs, he is not a master, he is a coward, a traitor, an ignorant who knows nothing (…) I know the Sadrists, I fought them in Basra, Karbala and Baghdad, we had no weapons and the Iranians had given them advanced missiles and we won anyway,” he said of al-Sadr and his followers.
Nuri al-Maliki, leader of the Shia party known as the State of Law Coalition and one of the leaders of the Coordination Framework, a Shia coalition currently holding a parliamentary majority, denied the truth of the recordings via Twitter. He said the footage, released on social media by journalist Ali Fadel, was fake. Moqtada al-Sadr, for his part, said the recordings mean nothing.
The leaks themselves are hardly newsworthy. Nuri al-Maliki’s hostile position towards al-Sadr and his followers, known as the Sadrists, has always been well documented; the two leaders have had bad blood since the beginning of al-Maliki’s reign.
According to many observers of Iraqi politics, the leaks are a symptom of the deep rifts in Iraqi society and politics.
A walk through memory lane
The confrontation between al-Maliki and al-Sadr started in 2003 after the US invasion of Iraq. After the US disbanded the Iraqi military, the country’s various factions had to fend for themselves. Militias were formed within individual regions for protection and to fight the Americans. The militias largely fell into two categories, depending on whether they were Sunni or Shia. Some Sunnis were affiliated with al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), and the Shias were largely organized by al-Moqtada into a militia called the Mahdi Army.
The Mahdi army was popular in southern and central Iraq and had a major impact in the war against the Americans until 2006, when al-Maliki became prime minister of Iraq. It was clear that if al-Maliki took over the reins, he would launch a massive military operation against AQI and the Mahdi army to try to disarm them, which he did in 2007 and 2008.
After fierce fighting, al-Sadr asked his militias to lay down their arms and do community work instead. In fact, in 2010, during the parliamentary elections, al-Sadr supported al-Maliki in his re-election bid, allegedly after intense lobbying from Iran. The Mahdi Army committed several war crimesbut al-Sadr and the militia leadership acknowledged and condemned these actions, explaining that their goal was to fight the Americans and not kill Iraqis.
In 2014, after the arrival of Islamic State (IS), the Mahdi army resumed military activities against the group under a new name, the Peace Brigades, as fighting them was considered a religious duty. The militia is considered active and has been in control of several areas in Iraq ever since. Al-Sadr became a very powerful and popular leader in the country’s politics. Indeed, his influence is currently strongest in Iraq, and the political movement named after him is the largest political force in Iraq and enjoys broad popular support.
The Shia leader’s relationship with Iran is very turbulent and complicated to say the least. However, now the political leader is a staunch opponent of the Islamic Republic of Iran and is considered one of its opponents in the country, at least politically.
political paralysis
In 2021, the Sadrists won the majority in parliament with a coalition made up of Masoud Barzani’s party, known as the Kurdish Democratic Party, and the Sunni Coalition for Sovereignty.
Al-Sadr and his allies effectively controlled the majority of the parliament. The rest were controlled by the Coordination Framework, which opposes al-Sadr and his movement. The coordination, formed after the elections, is composed of the party of al-Maliki and other Shia leaders who lost their influence in 2021, along with some Sunni MPs.
After several attempts, al-Sadr’s majority failed to form a government due to the opposition’s veto power in Iraqi parliamentary proceedings. Al-Sadr decided to leave parliament, along with all his elected MPs. Officially, he left to help the political process; unofficially, it was to pressure coordination.
This was a smart move, as al-Sadr’s decision put him in a win-win situation and coordination in a tricky situation. The latter needed another government that appealed to everyone, especially al-Moqtada, as he threatened mass protests unless his vision of how the government should be constituted was realized. In addition, the current interim government headed by Moustafa al-Kazimi is close to al-Moqtada. This means that he may retain his influence in the government in any case.
“I think Mr al-Sadr got out of the government and the political opposition to join the popular opposition, which is stronger. He gave himself a margin of freedom after being criticized for criticizing the government while he was part of it,” said Najm Al-Qassab, an Iraqi political analyst and commentator. “He is the only political leader in Iraq who can move his base at any time,” he added. In fact, after he threatened to call for protests after… Friday prayers on July 15, several pro-Sadr protests were recorded in the country.
This maneuver effectively put the country into political paralysis. Fractures run deep in Iraq’s political fabric. Iraq’s Shia divide has been damaging the country’s politics for years, and the shootings are just a symptom of that. Many wonder if the timing of these shootings is meant to stop the political process. This question itself misses the point, as the political process has been halted since the 2021 elections and no new government has yet been formed.
A political detachment from economic reality
Despite the oil revenues that could lift the country out of financial ruin, Iraq still faces an astonishing lack of services, dilapidated infrastructure, rampant unemployment and corruption. The population has protested massively in recent years to try and change the situation, citing political corruption as the source of Iraq’s economic woes. In fact, it was the 2019-2021 protest movement in the country that led to the 2021 elections, which in turn led to the current deadlock.
In Iraq, the bickering factions seem to be simply fighting for power rather than acting to change the economic or political status quo. In fact, after nine months of political deadlock, the Iraqi parliament is nowhere near naming a new government and the current interim government has failed to find solutions to the country’s economic problems.
“The people on the list leaked by the government to replace Kazimi as prime minister would be difficult to elect by the MPs. The Coordination can form a government as it has the majority in parliament. The continuation of said government is a very different story, as no government can continue without the support of al-Sadr,” said Qassab.