In the era of climate change, a once frigid US city transforms into a haven.

Standing on the frozen shore of Lake Superior, ice melting glistening in the northern Minnesota sun, Christina Welch remembers what made her trade the temperate vineyards of Northern California for the chilly town of Duluth.

In 2017, a wildfire raged dangerously close to her neighborhood in Sonoma County. Then two years later, while she was visiting Duluth on the advice of a colleague, another fire forced her parents to vacate their home.

“This was the straw that broke the camel’s back,” Welch, 40, told AFP.

Duluth, the northernmost city in the United States, is known for very cold and snowy winters, fueled by the strong winds that blow into Lake Superior.

But despite its harsh environment, this Midwestern city of 86,000 is starting to make a name for itself as a haven of sorts—for those fleeing the effects of climate change.

And wildfires, which scientists say are becoming more frequent and more intense because of climate change, also convinced John Jenkins to abandon California beaches for the icy shores of Duluth.

“The air smells cleaner. The water is some of the best in the world. It’s so clean, pure and beautiful,” Jenkins, 38, told AFP from the restaurant he bought and renovated.

Even on winter days when the temperature drops below -20 degrees Fahrenheit (-29 degrees Celsius) Welch and Jenkins do not regret their decisions.

And the Jenkins family only grew. Since moving here with his wife, he has had two children, and many family members have come to join them.

Around the world, climate change has already caused thousands to be involuntarily displaced. But Jenkins and Walsh can also be considered “climate migrants”.

They are part of a small but potentially growing group of people for whom climate change—along with traditional factors such as quality of life, job opportunities, and housing prices—affects where they settle.

The new oil

Jesse Keenan, associate professor of sustainable real estate at Tulane University, is responsible for much of the buzz surrounding Duluth these days.

Keenan, who specializes in urbanism and climate adaptation, began a few years ago by examining where climate-conscious Americans might want to live.

He identified several cities, including Buffalo, in upstate New York, and Detroit, Michigan.

But Duluth, a historically industrial city with plenty of affordable, high-quality housing, has benefited “from many years of investment from the state of Minnesota in an effort to foster a sustainable economy,” he said.

The shores of Lake Superior provide another advantage.

“Fresh water is the new oil,” Keenan said.

So far, a lot of the residents seem open to having more neighbors — if the newcomers can handle it, that is.

“I think it’s great,” said Leslie Oachs, a 65-year-old retiree. “But they have to get used to the fact that it’s cold almost all the time.”

Climate optimists

Local authorities have taken a markedly different tone about the city’s growing popularity.

“I thought it was terrifying,” Mayor Emily Larson said at a recent conference when the Duluth name began to circulate. “I still do.”

“It looks like we’re still putting our oxygen masks on. We’re kind of not ready to help the passenger next to us, however, and the climate calls for us to do that. And that’s a lot.”

Additionally, Larson said, it would be “predatory” to run a “marketing strategy” based on climate shocks in California or elsewhere by saying “I’m really sorry…but you can come here because it’s cooler by the lake.”

Keenan argues that this is the wrong way of looking at things.

“People will come one way or another,” he said, “no matter what you do.”

Larsson’s office declined to speak to AFP.

Keenan said the challenge facing Duluth is “very simple”.

Either the city can “promote sustainable urban development,” through investments in housing and transportation that require it, or growth—needed or not—will come in the traditional way, with automobile-dependent expansion and poorer populations priced in the form of “climate improvement.”

Duluth is a place for “climate optimists,” people who “believe we can do this, that we can decarbonize the world.”

But even he has his concerns.

“It’s a beautiful part of the country and it has a very sensitive ecological field,” Keenan said.

Duluth murmured, “If it’s not done well, it can make things worse.”

© 2023 AFP