Not being Morrison will only take Albanese so far on the world stage

For a while, not being Scott Morrison was one of Anthony Albanese’s greatest assets.

This helped the new prime minister achieve rapid victories, especially on the world stage.

Greater ambition on climate change was a welcome vision for Americans and Europeans, both of whom had long wanted Australia to aim higher on the climate front.

There was a particular added advantage to not being Morrison when it came to the French, whose president had accused him of lying. Macron really sought to put Morrison in trouble by effusively welcoming Albanese to the Elysée just weeks after the election.

The final piece of this geopolitical puzzle begins to fall into place today, when Albanese lands in China.

Relations between the two countries are a far cry from what was hoped for a decade ago, when Prime Minister Julia Gillard struck an unprecedented deal with Chinese leaders.

Julia Gillard with Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang in Beijing in 2013.(Kim Kyung Hoon, Reuters)

It was agreed that the leaders would meet annually face-to-face, beating other Western countries to reach such an agreement.

The world was different in 2013. Back then, it was a world in which an Australian prime minister could foreshadow the prospect of greater defense cooperation, including trilateral military exercises with the United States. The mere mention of such a thing today seems laughable.

This closeness will not last and in 2016, Malcolm Turnbull will become the last Australian Prime Minister to visit the country.

A lot has changed since Julia Gillard’s visit. Australia would ban Chinese tech firm Huawei from rolling out 5G network and later call for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. In China, Xi Jinping further demonstrated his authoritarian instincts, naming himself leader for life and feeling besieged by a Western world eager to counter his country’s expansion.

Its retaliation against Australia has been widespread, including trade sanctions worth tens of billions of dollars, threats against journalists and the indefinite detention of citizens.

But the May 2022 elections brought a circuit breaker.

When he gets off the plane in China, not being Morrison will help Albanese. Some would argue that this is a visit that Morrison would probably not have been offered. But not being Morrison will only go so far in stabilizing relations in the long term.

Loading…

Saving face for everyone

Both sides have offered ground, while ensuring the other saves face in the process.

China has abandoned, or is in the process of abandoning, $19 billion in trade sanctions, in each case pointing to a “review” of the decisions rather than admitting it was wrong to impose the bans in the first place .

Australian journalist Cheng Lei was released not because it was an obstacle to Albanese’s visits, but because she had served her sentence, Chinese authorities say, shamelessly ignoring that she barely touched the sides of the expected sentence for the crime she is accused of committing. – although no Australian leader is prepared to say it publicly.

A week after Cheng’s release, Australia confirmed it would not cancel the 99-year lease of Darwin Port to a Chinese company.

Each side insisted on receiving a victory, without seeking to publicly exploit the result.

The government insists Albanese is traveling to China with no intention of returning in 2013. The trip is aimed at forging a new world order for Australia-China relations. It’s about opening “dialogues” and being “patient, calibrated and deliberate.”

The Prime Minister likes to repeat that the two countries “will cooperate where we can and disagree where we must”. Joe Biden, at a press conference with Albanese in Washington a week ago, warned the prime minister against putting too much faith in China.

Each side wants more from the other. For Australia, she wants the complete abolition of trade barriers and the release of detained Australians. China wants Australia’s support to join an 11-nation trade deal in the Pacific.

Neither will likely be resolved this weekend. This journey is not the end, it is the beginning of a new journey together.

Loading

How much travel is too much?

Australia has learned a lot about itself over the past three years.

It has always been the smaller party in its dealings with its larger trading partner.

And yet recent years have reminded Australian leaders of their country’s importance to China.

Scott Morrison’s government was determined to hold the line with China in the trade war. This proved a unity ticket with the Labor Party. The government of Anthony Albanese shouldered this responsibility perfectly and the result was that China gave ground first.

This is a timely reminder of the importance of Australia’s raw resources to the country’s continued growth.

By ending the diplomatic freeze and welcoming Albanese, Xi, himself under pressure amid an economic slowdown (the extent of which will likely never be known to the outside world), can signal to the Western world his willingness to reengage.

Making the trip a week after a high-profile visit to the United States places Albanese in the middle of a high-wire act, crossing a fine line between Australia’s economic and security interests.

Success in Washington got him halfway, and achieving the same in Beijing will get him to the other side. But the descent could prove to be the most serious in our country.

There is no doubt that Albanese is aware of the amount of international travel he is currently undertaking at a time when inflation is at a breakneck pace and shattering household budgets from coast to coast.

The prime minister has spent his week between trips traveling the country, telling everyone who will listen that he hears their pain and has a treatment plan for the diagnosis.

Albanese’s government, fresh from a defeat by Voice, has a reserve bank considering another rate hike and receiving increasingly ominous weather warnings about the coming summer.

Travel to the United States and China is essential for an Australian Prime Minister. The same goes for the Pacific trip Albanese will take after leaving Beijing next week.

This won’t be his last foreign trip of the year and that in itself is a risky prospect amid dry days and hot temperatures.

Prime ministers are notorious for not holding their own, but they can face political backlash if they are abroad while there is conflict at home. Just ask Scott Morrison how this can happen.