Fri. Feb 23rd, 2024

    What we learned months before the New Hampshire primary

    Republicans Marlo Devir and Christy Carlson, who voted for Trump in 2020, highlighted that line as something that resonated with them.

    “I agree to a certain extent that it is still [Trump] a little bit, and there’s a little bit of… she called it ‘chaos’ and, honestly, I don’t disagree with that,” Devir said.

    Carlson said: “He doesn’t question the policies and procedures he was able to put in place. He made it about chaos, and that was brilliant, because if people start thinking about it that way, it will change some of the thinking.”

    There are voters who absolutely adore Haley. Carrol Horrocks, who NBC News spoke to in Bedford in September, is a retired assistant school superintendent. He called Haley “brave” and “compelling.”

    “She is very fluent in all the issues we are experiencing both nationally and internationally,” Horrocks said. “She has logical ideas on how to solve them. She is a fighter. “She has my vote.”

    But others talk more about Trump when it comes to his motivations. Gary Misiaszek, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, does not plan to support him this time. “If he is elected for the Republican nomination, I’m afraid the Democrats will win,” Misiaszek said this month.

    The strategy of choosing your vote

    The New Hampshire stereotype is that voters take their responsibility seriously, and many, especially those who don’t like Trump, have actually spent nearly a year weighing how best to strategically use their power.

    Julia Matte, 21, an unreported voter, believes it is “critical” to vote with “intention” in every election.

    “A vote for a moderate like Nikki Haley in the primary may not mean that is my intended vote in the general election for president, but rather simply a vote for her as the Republican candidate to reduce Trump’s runaway lead,” Matte said . “A group of like-minded voters, who vote with intention and support a less popular candidate, could very well have the power to change the course of the rest of the race.”

    Nathan Seal, another undeclared voter, said he plans to vote for Haley on Tuesday because “the Democratic Party is not running a worthwhile primary, and I think she has a better chance of beating Trump.”

    Hella Ross was among thousands of voters who changed their Democratic voter registrations so they could participate in the Republican primary. “The goal was to stop Trump and make sure he’s not the nominee,” Ross said.

    Ross and her friend Thalia Floras changed their Democratic registration to undeclared and plan to vote for Haley.

    “If you told me a year ago that I would be considering Nikki Haley, I would tell you you were crazy,” Floras said.

    Aside from Trump, Christie may have inspired the most loyalty among his supporters

    Christie, who dropped out of the race 13 days before the primary, spent most of his time in New Hampshire and never set foot in Iowa this election cycle.

    And his committed anti-Trump campaign earned him a small but committed following, with at least one voter still planning to back him even though he is out of the race.

    Gary Goudreau, a loyal Christie supporter, plans to vote for him after he decided he couldn’t back Haley. Christie criticized Haley along the way for saying he would pardon Trump if he were found guilty of some of the charges he faces later this year.

    “I cannot vote for Trump or anyone who supports him or condones him,” Goudreau said.

    However, some of Christie’s voters will migrate to Haley. The night Christie dropped out, Toni Pappas said she felt “confused and sad” and said she “had no idea what I’m going to do next in terms of which candidate I’m going to support.”

    He now plans to support Haley and says he respects Gov. Chris Sununu’s endorsement.

    Even when he was doing better, DeSantis never noticed

    Some of the first warning signs for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the presidential race two days before the New Hampshire primary, came as he tried to make his way as a staunch conservative in a moderate state.

    It was the first state where Haley caught him in the polls, and his record on abortion and other political issues in Florida raised questions from voters in a state where the Republican electorate leans more moderate than Iowa’s. In the end, the DeSantis campaign moved money and resources to Iowa to seek momentum there. His campaign never aired a television ad in New Hampshire, according to AdImpact.

    And his single-digit support remaining in the polls when he dropped out illustrated the pressure he faced: Pro-Trump voters stayed with the former president, while those seeking a new direction migrated to Haley.

    However, some DeSantis loyalists plan to vote for him even though he suspended his campaign.

    Before DeSantis retired, Kalup Veneman, 45, said DeSantis was his first choice because “he’s done a lot in Florida and I think he’s going to accomplish it for America.”

    Veneman still plans to vote for DeSantis in the primary. “I will vote for President Trump in the general election as long as he doesn’t pick Haley as vice president,” she said.

    Biden has a restless base to appease before November

    On the Democratic side, the big story of this primary cycle has been the Democratic National Committee’s efforts to supplant the nation’s first primary in New Hampshire with a contest in South Carolina, even though New Hampshire state law requires that the state goes first.

    Thanks to those efforts, New Hampshire is moving forward with a non-sanctioned race and Biden will not be on the ballot. New Hampshire voters wishing to vote for him must enter his name.

    Even people actively campaigning to write in Biden are unhappy with his decision and that of the Democratic National Committee.

    Luz Bay, who this month turned her 60th birthday party into a house party for the writing effort, in which the Biden campaign is not participating, said: “My gut reaction? Well, screw them.”

    But, he added, “we will do it in New Hampshire, because New Hampshire supports Biden. And if we can’t do it on a regular basis, then we’ll do it in a way that we can still get him to win in New Hampshire.”

    Walter King, 73, chooses to write in Biden because of “his record of achievements.” However, he said it was “extremely disappointing” that Biden is not on the ballot.

    It’s the start of a year in which Democrats and left-wing voters across the country will have to decide whether to go home with Biden in the general election, despite varying degrees of discontent over different policy areas and what he has done. in office.

    And in New Hampshire, the primary is a parochial issue that has overlapped with that. Many voters of both parties have been disappointed and angry that the state’s coveted primary primary status has been called into question.

    Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., and Marianne Williamson, who are on the ballot challenging Biden, have been inclined to criticize the primary change, including criticizing the Democratic National Committee for a letter calling the primary a “without sense”.

    Phillips said in a debate with Williamson: “I hope it goes on display in the National Archives, because I think it is one of the most egregious affronts to democracy that I have ever seen in my entire life as an American.”

    Williamson said “candidate suppression is happening here.”

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